At the very least, I’m saying that that’s the perception: most crimes go unpunished.
But yes, I also suspect that perception is true. I haven’t done any research on the matter, though, and attempts to find statistics via cursory Googling failed.
If you have any cites handy, I’m happy to be corrected.
In that case, why aren’t you stealing money and donating to SIAI? ;)
But seriously, there are countries where your comment is actually true. You can tell the difference pretty easily.
To be honest, I’m not convinced that it isn’t true even in first-world countries. Solve rates for murders in the US appear to be around 66% as of 2007. I haven’t directly been able to dig up solve rates for crimes in general, but clearance rates (the rate of crimes prosecuted to crimes reported) are available, and are well under 50% for pretty much everything except murder. Most prosecuted crimes appear to result in convictions, but this still says to me that TheOtherDave’s got it right, at least in a US context and assuming that most reports aren’t frivolous.
YMMV for other nations.
ETA: Looking over these statistics again, I strongly suspect that the “solve” figures you find in various places are in fact identical to the clearance rates I refer to. So the reports-to-convictions ratio would be significantly lower—compare conviction rates for cases brought to court.
I infer that your intuitions differ from mine but you don’t have any cites handy either. Fair enough. Updated, to a degree proportional to my confidence in the reliability of your intuition on this matter, in your direction.
In that case, why aren’t you stealing money and donating to SIAI? ;)
But seriously, there are countries where your comment is actually true. You can tell the difference pretty easily.
To be honest, I’m not convinced that it isn’t true even in first-world countries. Solve rates for murders in the US appear to be around 66% as of 2007. I haven’t directly been able to dig up solve rates for crimes in general, but clearance rates (the rate of crimes prosecuted to crimes reported) are available, and are well under 50% for pretty much everything except murder. Most prosecuted crimes appear to result in convictions, but this still says to me that TheOtherDave’s got it right, at least in a US context and assuming that most reports aren’t frivolous.
YMMV for other nations.
ETA: Looking over these statistics again, I strongly suspect that the “solve” figures you find in various places are in fact identical to the clearance rates I refer to. So the reports-to-convictions ratio would be significantly lower—compare conviction rates for cases brought to court.
I infer that your intuitions differ from mine but you don’t have any cites handy either.
Fair enough.
Updated, to a degree proportional to my confidence in the reliability of your intuition on this matter, in your direction.