They were shocked more because the final forecasts failed to predict the final outcome.
Those are the people who don’t understand the difference between a point forecast and a distribution forecast.
In a lot of cases, yes, although some of the shocked are presumably guilty merely of e.g. following Sam Wang’s forecasts (which gave Clinton 50:1 or better odds) rather than Silver’s.
Those are the people who don’t understand the difference between a point forecast and a distribution forecast.
In a lot of cases, yes, although some of the shocked are presumably guilty merely of e.g. following Sam Wang’s forecasts (which gave Clinton 50:1 or better odds) rather than Silver’s.