Thanks for the insight on the difference between Predictit/Betfair—I wasn’t aware of this liquidity difference. Although so long as there is a reasonable amount of liquidity on Predict it, it’s very strange the two are not in equilibrium. Do you know if there are any open theories as to why this is?
One thing I notice is a lot of commenters on PredictIt are alt-right/NRx. It seems unlikely, but I wonder if different ideological priors are pushing different prediction markets away from a common equilibrium probability.
Thanks for the insight on the difference between Predictit/Betfair—I wasn’t aware of this liquidity difference. Although so long as there is a reasonable amount of liquidity on Predict it, it’s very strange the two are not in equilibrium. Do you know if there are any open theories as to why this is?
One thing I notice is a lot of commenters on PredictIt are alt-right/NRx. It seems unlikely, but I wonder if different ideological priors are pushing different prediction markets away from a common equilibrium probability.
Maybe there isn’t a reasonable amount of liquidity on Predictit. It is now down to 22%, from 34% when I wrote my comment, maybe an hour ago.
Predictit has a time series, but only daily updates. Betfair has a detailed chart without labels on the time axis.