It’s not at all inevitable. I don’t think Aschenbrenner painted it as inevitable. He was more arguing that the government should do this than that they’d agree with him or act in time.
Let me just point out that it doesn’t need to be a Manhattan project for the goverment to take control of AGI if it’s developed at an American company. Once the national security implications are clear, I don’t think they’d even need to pass new laws or even executive orders. And there are lots of arrangements like “the government is going to help you with network security, in exchange for a seat at the table when decisions are made”. Or alternately, they’ll help with nothing and just threaten harsh consequences if their advice isn’t followed in how this potential game-changer is used.
I see very little chance that governments don’t seize control of AGI. The only question is when, which governments, and where they are relative to rival powers’ development of AGI at that point.
It’s not at all inevitable. I don’t think Aschenbrenner painted it as inevitable. He was more arguing that the government should do this than that they’d agree with him or act in time.
Let me just point out that it doesn’t need to be a Manhattan project for the goverment to take control of AGI if it’s developed at an American company. Once the national security implications are clear, I don’t think they’d even need to pass new laws or even executive orders. And there are lots of arrangements like “the government is going to help you with network security, in exchange for a seat at the table when decisions are made”. Or alternately, they’ll help with nothing and just threaten harsh consequences if their advice isn’t followed in how this potential game-changer is used.
I see very little chance that governments don’t seize control of AGI. The only question is when, which governments, and where they are relative to rival powers’ development of AGI at that point.