I think this question applies in a lot of areas where experiments are possible but extremely expensive; for most of these that I can think of, we are in much greater trouble because we’re starting with even less data.
Two examples:
personal: Theory 1 and 2 are I (for some value of I) will be happiest as a 1) doctor or 2) physicist. I can sort of experiment with this, rudely and grossly, and I can spend some time gathering supporting data. However, without actually making
a career in physics and in medicine, I haven’t really experimented; even if I did there would be all sorts of variables I couldn’t control.
national: Theory 1 and 2 are we (for some value of we) will better provide for the future of our citizens as 1) Democratic capitalists or 2) social democrats. This is testable in the same way, and just as one can look to other doctors and physicists to gain insight, a nation can look to other nations, but fundamentally, transitioning back and forth between economic systems is extremely costly.
So, in the absence of a superintelligence that can perfectly simulate doctor-you and physicist-you, or a whole nation of us, how do we reach scientifically justifiable conclusions, and how do we refine our theories and models with so little data?
I think this question applies in a lot of areas where experiments are possible but extremely expensive; for most of these that I can think of, we are in much greater trouble because we’re starting with even less data.
Two examples: personal: Theory 1 and 2 are I (for some value of I) will be happiest as a 1) doctor or 2) physicist. I can sort of experiment with this, rudely and grossly, and I can spend some time gathering supporting data. However, without actually making a career in physics and in medicine, I haven’t really experimented; even if I did there would be all sorts of variables I couldn’t control.
national: Theory 1 and 2 are we (for some value of we) will better provide for the future of our citizens as 1) Democratic capitalists or 2) social democrats. This is testable in the same way, and just as one can look to other doctors and physicists to gain insight, a nation can look to other nations, but fundamentally, transitioning back and forth between economic systems is extremely costly.
So, in the absence of a superintelligence that can perfectly simulate doctor-you and physicist-you, or a whole nation of us, how do we reach scientifically justifiable conclusions, and how do we refine our theories and models with so little data?