Well, when you use Bayes theorem, you are updating based on a conditioning event. But with causal info, it is not a conditioning event anymore. I don’t think it is literally impossible to be Bayesian with causal info, but it sounds hard. I am still thinking about it.
So I am not sure how practical this “be more Bayesian” advice really is. In practice we should be able to use information of the form “aspirin does not cause cancer”, right?
Well, when you use Bayes theorem, you are updating based on a conditioning event. But with causal info, it is not a conditioning event anymore. I don’t think it is literally impossible to be Bayesian with causal info, but it sounds hard. I am still thinking about it.
So I am not sure how practical this “be more Bayesian” advice really is. In practice we should be able to use information of the form “aspirin does not cause cancer”, right?
[ I did not downvote the parent. ]