After taking existential risk into account more accurately (16.5% risk before 2100, then annual risk of 2×10e-5):
The expected value of signing up if you’re currently 20 has dropped to ~850k
It’s $3 mio. if you’re 30 right now
Cryocrastination is rational given complete self-trust
Still very much not worth it if you’re even slightly wary of motivation/discipline drift
No motivation drift, current age 20:
Motivation drift, current age 20:
Problems this analysis still has: Guesstimate model not updated for x-risk numbers, still working on the old Alcor membership fees (which were slightly lower, especially for new members).
My guess would be that in majority of existential risk scenarios (perhaps 4⁄5), cryonically frozen humans are revived and treated in a reasonably humane way. Most existential risk isn’t extinction IMO.
Update to the cryonics cost-benefit analysis:
After taking existential risk into account more accurately (16.5% risk before 2100, then annual risk of 2×10e-5):
The expected value of signing up if you’re currently 20 has dropped to ~850k
It’s $3 mio. if you’re 30 right now
Cryocrastination is rational given complete self-trust
Still very much not worth it if you’re even slightly wary of motivation/discipline drift
No motivation drift, current age 20:
Motivation drift, current age 20:
Problems this analysis still has: Guesstimate model not updated for x-risk numbers, still working on the old Alcor membership fees (which were slightly lower, especially for new members).
My guess would be that in majority of existential risk scenarios (perhaps 4⁄5), cryonically frozen humans are revived and treated in a reasonably humane way. Most existential risk isn’t extinction IMO.
For more discussion, see here
Good point, I meant extinction risk. Will clarify.
(I disagree with the other statements you made, but didn’t downvote).