TL;DR: I’ve set up 14 markets on Manifold for the outcomes experiments I could run on myself. I will select the best and a random market and actually run the experiments. Please predict themarkets.
Why I think this is cool: This is one step in the direction of morefutarchy, and there is a pretty continuous path from doing this to more and more involved and extensive decision market projects. Me doing this gives experimental evidence on how good decision markets can work.
So: Please consider my pleas!:
Predict the markets
Maybe send me mana on Manifold for me to create more markets or subsidise existing ones
So I just posted what I think is a pretty cool post which so far hasn’t gotten a lot of attention and which I’d like to get more attention[1]: Using Prediction Platforms to Select Quantified Self Experiments.
TL;DR: I’ve set up 14 markets on Manifold for the outcomes experiments I could run on myself. I will select the best and a random market and actually run the experiments. Please predict the markets.
Why I think this is cool: This is one step in the direction of more futarchy, and there is a pretty continuous path from doing this to more and more involved and extensive decision market projects. Me doing this gives experimental evidence on how good decision markets can work.
So: Please consider my pleas!:
Predict the markets
Maybe send me mana on Manifold for me to create more markets or subsidise existing ones
Give me ideas for more experiments to run
If there was a way to spend karma to get more attention on this post I’d be willing to spend up to 1000 karma on it.