First result from my quantified-self decision market experiment: I’ve finished the first experiment (which tested whether the pomodoro method increases productivity), and the effect size of the pomodoro method on productivity is ~0.26.
The market assigned 39% to the outcome 0.2<d<0.6, and in total the market has a log-score of −0.326:
This is a small amount of evidence that decision markets can work in low-stakes contexts. I’m going to run more of the proposed experiments to test this.
First result from my quantified-self decision market experiment: I’ve finished the first experiment (which tested whether the pomodoro method increases productivity), and the effect size of the pomodoro method on productivity is ~0.26.
The market assigned 39% to the outcome 0.2<d<0.6, and in total the market has a log-score of −0.326:
This is a small amount of evidence that decision markets can work in low-stakes contexts. I’m going to run more of the proposed experiments to test this.