I’m pretty sure that’s meant to be “Conditioned on a disaster wiping out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100, which of these is most likely to be that disaster?”
I thought of this, but felt that it would be misleading to lump together people who thought there was a high chance for such an event occurring and people who thought there was basically no chance, but were forced to pick something anyway. But then I realized that there is actually a “what’s the probability of such an event” question in the survey, so those don’t need to be lumped together even with this formulation. So never mind.
I’m pretty sure that’s meant to be “Conditioned on a disaster wiping out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100, which of these is most likely to be that disaster?”
I thought of this, but felt that it would be misleading to lump together people who thought there was a high chance for such an event occurring and people who thought there was basically no chance, but were forced to pick something anyway. But then I realized that there is actually a “what’s the probability of such an event” question in the survey, so those don’t need to be lumped together even with this formulation. So never mind.