The year of singularity question is unclear, and it also tries to make blank a meaningful response (which doesn’t work so well because there are lots of reasons why people leave a question blank). It would be clearer to say something like: “By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that there is a 50% chance of the Singularity happening by the year that you give and a 50% chance of it happening later or not at all. If you think that there is less than a 50% chance that the Singularity will ever happen, write “never”.”
Unless you want the median time to be conditional on the Singularity occurring, in which case it would be good to make that explicit and have a separate P(Singularity) question.
The year of singularity question is unclear, and it also tries to make blank a meaningful response (which doesn’t work so well because there are lots of reasons why people leave a question blank). It would be clearer to say something like: “By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that there is a 50% chance of the Singularity happening by the year that you give and a 50% chance of it happening later or not at all. If you think that there is less than a 50% chance that the Singularity will ever happen, write “never”.”
Unless you want the median time to be conditional on the Singularity occurring, in which case it would be good to make that explicit and have a separate P(Singularity) question.
I kind of want to answer 1876 to the Singularity question. ;)