Yes, I did read the paper. And those are still extremely small effects and almost no predictability, no matter how you graph them (note the axis truncation and sparsity), even before you get into the question of “what is the causal status of any of these claims and why we are assuming that interest groups in support precede rather than follow success?”
7% of the variance isn’t negligible. Just look at the pictures (Figure 1 in the paper):
Yes, I did read the paper. And those are still extremely small effects and almost no predictability, no matter how you graph them (note the axis truncation and sparsity), even before you get into the question of “what is the causal status of any of these claims and why we are assuming that interest groups in support precede rather than follow success?”