I’m surprised you’re willing to bet money on Aaronson oracles; I’ve played around with them a bit and I can generally get them down to only predicting me around 30-40% correctly. (The one in my open browser tab is currently sitting at 37% but I’ve got it down to 25% before on shorter runs).
I use relatively simple techniques:
deliberately creating patterns that don’t feel random to humans (like long strings of one answer) - I initially did this because I hypothesized that it might have hard-coded in some facts about how humans fail at generating randomness, now I’m not sure why it works; possibly it’s easier for me to control what it predicts this way?
once a model catches onto my pattern, waiting 2-3 steps before varying it (again, I initially did this because I thought it was more complex than it was, and it might be hypothesizing that I’d change my pattern once it let me know that it caught me; now I know the code’s much simpler and I think this probably just prevents me from making mistakes somehow)
glancing at objects around me (or tabs in my browser) for semi-random input (I looked around my bedroom and saw a fitness leaflet for F, a screwdriver for D, and a felt jumper for another F)
changing up the fingers I’m using (using my first two fingers to press F and D produces more predictable input than using my ring and little finger)
pretending I’m playing a game like osu, tapping out song beats, focusing on the beat rather than the letter choice, and switching which song I’m mimicking every ~line or phrase
just pressing both keys simultaneously so I’m not consciously choosing which I press first
Knowing how it works seems anti-helpful; I know the code is based on 5-grams, but trying to count 6-long patterns in my head causes its prediction rate to jump to nearly 80%. Trying to do much consciously at all, except something like “open my mind to the universe and accept random noise from my environment”, lets it predict me. But often I have a sort of ‘vibe’ sense for what it’s going to predict, so I pick the opposite of that, and the vibe is correct enough that I listen to it.
There might be a better oracle out there which beats me, but this one seems to have pretty simple code and I would expect most smart people to be able to beat it if they focus on trying to beat the oracle rather than trying to generate random data.
If you’re still happy to take the bet, I expect to make money on it. It would be understandable, however, if you don’t want to take the bet because I don’t believe in CDT.
I have enough integrity to not pretend to believe in CDT just so I can take your money, but I will note that I’m pretty sure the linked Aaronson oracle is deterministic, so if you’re using the linked one then someone could just ask me to give them a script for a series of keys to press that gets a less-than-50% correct rate from the linked oracle over 100 key presses, and they could test the script. Then they could take your money and split it with me.
Of course, if you’re not actually using the linked oracle and secretly you have a more sophisticated oracle which you would use in the actual bet, then you shouldn’t be concerned. This isn’t free will, this could probably be bruteforced.
...Admittedly, I’m not sure the percentage it reports is always accurate; here’s a screenshot of it saying 0% while it clearly has correct guesses in the history (and indeed, a >50% record in recent history). I’m not sure if that percentage is possibly reporting something different to what I’m expecting it to track?
I’m surprised you’re willing to bet money on Aaronson oracles; I’ve played around with them a bit and I can generally get them down to only predicting me around 30-40% correctly. (The one in my open browser tab is currently sitting at 37% but I’ve got it down to 25% before on shorter runs).
I use relatively simple techniques:
deliberately creating patterns that don’t feel random to humans (like long strings of one answer) - I initially did this because I hypothesized that it might have hard-coded in some facts about how humans fail at generating randomness, now I’m not sure why it works; possibly it’s easier for me to control what it predicts this way?
once a model catches onto my pattern, waiting 2-3 steps before varying it (again, I initially did this because I thought it was more complex than it was, and it might be hypothesizing that I’d change my pattern once it let me know that it caught me; now I know the code’s much simpler and I think this probably just prevents me from making mistakes somehow)
glancing at objects around me (or tabs in my browser) for semi-random input (I looked around my bedroom and saw a fitness leaflet for F, a screwdriver for D, and a felt jumper for another F)
changing up the fingers I’m using (using my first two fingers to press F and D produces more predictable input than using my ring and little finger)
pretending I’m playing a game like osu, tapping out song beats, focusing on the beat rather than the letter choice, and switching which song I’m mimicking every ~line or phrase
just pressing both keys simultaneously so I’m not consciously choosing which I press first
Knowing how it works seems anti-helpful; I know the code is based on 5-grams, but trying to count 6-long patterns in my head causes its prediction rate to jump to nearly 80%. Trying to do much consciously at all, except something like “open my mind to the universe and accept random noise from my environment”, lets it predict me. But often I have a sort of ‘vibe’ sense for what it’s going to predict, so I pick the opposite of that, and the vibe is correct enough that I listen to it.
There might be a better oracle out there which beats me, but this one seems to have pretty simple code and I would expect most smart people to be able to beat it if they focus on trying to beat the oracle rather than trying to generate random data.
If you’re still happy to take the bet, I expect to make money on it. It would be understandable, however, if you don’t want to take the bet because I don’t believe in CDT.
Not accepting bets from people who can use their free will. ;)
I have enough integrity to not pretend to believe in CDT just so I can take your money, but I will note that I’m pretty sure the linked Aaronson oracle is deterministic, so if you’re using the linked one then someone could just ask me to give them a script for a series of keys to press that gets a less-than-50% correct rate from the linked oracle over 100 key presses, and they could test the script. Then they could take your money and split it with me.
Of course, if you’re not actually using the linked oracle and secretly you have a more sophisticated oracle which you would use in the actual bet, then you shouldn’t be concerned. This isn’t free will, this could probably be bruteforced.
Not accepting bets from people who can use their free will. ;)
...Admittedly, I’m not sure the percentage it reports is always accurate; here’s a screenshot of it saying 0% while it clearly has correct guesses in the history (and indeed, a >50% record in recent history). I’m not sure if that percentage is possibly reporting something different to what I’m expecting it to track?