My algorithmic estimates essentially only quantify your “first category” type of improvements, I wouldn’t know where to begin making estimates for qualitative “second category” AGI algorithmic progress.
My comparisons to human level NLP (which I don’t think would necessarily yield AGI) assumed scaling would hold for current (or near future) techniques, so do you think that current techniques won’t scale, or/and that the actual 100-1000x figure I gave was too high?
I’m not sure what the ratio is but my guess is it’s 50⁄50 or so. I’d love to see someone tackle this question and come up with a number.
My algorithmic estimates essentially only quantify your “first category” type of improvements, I wouldn’t know where to begin making estimates for qualitative “second category” AGI algorithmic progress.
My comparisons to human level NLP (which I don’t think would necessarily yield AGI) assumed scaling would hold for current (or near future) techniques, so do you think that current techniques won’t scale, or/and that the actual 100-1000x figure I gave was too high?
Yeah that would be great if someone did that.