Metaculus prediction dropped to 2033 after gpt-3. So some people adjacent to the community think that your logic leads to the right conclusion.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/
Wow GPT-3 shaved at least 10 years off the median prediction by the looks of it. I didn’t realise Metaculus had prediction history, thanks for letting me know.
Metaculus prediction dropped to 2033 after gpt-3. So some people adjacent to the community think that your logic leads to the right conclusion.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/
Wow GPT-3 shaved at least 10 years off the median prediction by the looks of it. I didn’t realise Metaculus had prediction history, thanks for letting me know.