I wouldn’t call this trivial, it depends on the particulars (which is why in the notation above, there’s a contradiction around the value of p_1). The easiest resolution involves following up on the article by looking for data/causal models. Like using the computer, and acquiring evidence.
o_1 = (observed: flat, black, with red speck)
p_1 = p(slow given o_1) = 0.5
o_2 = (observed: article claiming p_1 = 0.25)
p_2 = p(slow given o_1, o_2) = ?
I wouldn’t call this trivial, it depends on the particulars (which is why in the notation above, there’s a contradiction around the value of p_1). The easiest resolution involves following up on the article by looking for data/causal models. Like using the computer, and acquiring evidence.