It does seem likely that the measures that have been taken do a lot more to inhibit between-household transmission than within-household transmission, so there could be a lag while within-household transmission works itself out before an exponential decline in new cases/deaths becomes evident.
And if there’s a testing backlog, and deaths are only recorded as COVID-19 deaths once a sample is finally tested, that would also introduce a lag. This seems like it must vary a lot with locale, though...
Those are both good points.
It does seem likely that the measures that have been taken do a lot more to inhibit between-household transmission than within-household transmission, so there could be a lag while within-household transmission works itself out before an exponential decline in new cases/deaths becomes evident.
And if there’s a testing backlog, and deaths are only recorded as COVID-19 deaths once a sample is finally tested, that would also introduce a lag. This seems like it must vary a lot with locale, though...