My guess is that most people aren’t infecting many others because of a number of factors, mainly awareness of the issue and social distancing measures. Most people are being extra careful compared to usual, especially about things that would have a high probability of transmission. I’m not sure how good the testing is...even if it is much better than it was, are they really anywhere close to catching all new cases, especially very mild ones? They are probably undercounting. But it doesn’t surprise me that right now it’s not taking off like crazy, especially if so many people are working from home and kids aren’t at school/don’t even really spread it. Initial spread would have been more extensive because of lack of awareness. People weren’t taking precautions because they didn’t know to do so, or didn’t understand the most effective ways to reduce risk, which was really unfortunate for groups of vulnerable people, such as nursing homes and multi-generational homes. If everything was open and no one was aware again, you’d probably start seeing huge super spreader events that could go exponential.
My guess is that most people aren’t infecting many others because of a number of factors, mainly awareness of the issue and social distancing measures. Most people are being extra careful compared to usual, especially about things that would have a high probability of transmission. I’m not sure how good the testing is...even if it is much better than it was, are they really anywhere close to catching all new cases, especially very mild ones? They are probably undercounting. But it doesn’t surprise me that right now it’s not taking off like crazy, especially if so many people are working from home and kids aren’t at school/don’t even really spread it. Initial spread would have been more extensive because of lack of awareness. People weren’t taking precautions because they didn’t know to do so, or didn’t understand the most effective ways to reduce risk, which was really unfortunate for groups of vulnerable people, such as nursing homes and multi-generational homes. If everything was open and no one was aware again, you’d probably start seeing huge super spreader events that could go exponential.