I think 50% is a reasonable belief given the very limited grasp of the problem we have.
Most of the weight on success comes from FAI being quite easy, and all of the many worries expressed on this site not being realistic. Some of the weight for success comes from a concerted effort to solve hard problems.
I think 50% is a reasonable belief given the very limited grasp of the problem we have.
Most of the weight on success comes from FAI being quite easy, and all of the many worries expressed on this site not being realistic. Some of the weight for success comes from a concerted effort to solve hard problems.