Plausibility is made of selected pieces of data, arranged to resonate in the human mind—humans think in stories, the universe doesn’t work in stories. Both the data and its placement constitute a certain number of bits of information, which strictly decreases the probability. The conjunction fallacy works on increased plausibility but decreased probability.
So plausibility is not the precise opposite of probability—something being plausible does not mean it is therefore unlikely—but would tend to correlate negatively.
(I now have a little trigger in my head that, whenever I say or think something is plausible, pipes up with “that means it’s less probable!”)
Plausibility is made of selected pieces of data, arranged to resonate in the human mind—humans think in stories, the universe doesn’t work in stories. Both the data and its placement constitute a certain number of bits of information, which strictly decreases the probability. The conjunction fallacy works on increased plausibility but decreased probability.
So plausibility is not the precise opposite of probability—something being plausible does not mean it is therefore unlikely—but would tend to correlate negatively.
(I now have a little trigger in my head that, whenever I say or think something is plausible, pipes up with “that means it’s less probable!”)