Someday we may see evolution that scales, at which point I will change my mind, but thus far, I think Behe is correct in his ‘edge of evolution’ argument
This is the part I cannot wrap around my mind: let’s say that evolution, as it’s presently understood, cannot explain the totality or even the birth of the life evolved on this planet. How can one jump from “not explained by present understanding of evolution” to “explained by a deity”? I mean, why the probability of the supernatural is so low compared to say, intelligent aliens intervention, panspermia or say a passing black hole that happens to create a violation of the laws of biochemistry?
As per the Christianity part, the emphasis on the will over reason gives a sustainable, evolutionarily stable ‘why’ to habits of character and thought that are salubrious, stoicism with real inspiration.
Have I understood correctly that, once estabilished for whatever reason that a deity exists, that you choose which deity exactly based on your historical and moral preferences?
It is a serious mistake to assume that because something could happen by natural laws, it is automatically more probable than something which would be a violation of natural laws.
For example, suppose I flipped a coin 10,000 times in a row and always got heads. In theory there are many possible explanations for this. But suppose by careful investigation we had reduced it to two possibilities:
It was a fair coin, and this happened by pure luck.
God made it happen through a miraculous intervention.
Number 1 could theoretically happen by natural laws, number 2 could not. But number 2 is more probable anyway.
The same thing might well be true about explanations such as “a passing black hole that happens to create a violation of the laws of biochemistry.” I see no reason to think that such things are more probable than the supernatural.
(That said, I agree that Eric is mistaken about this.)
But suppose by careful investigation we had reduced it to two possibilities:
Just to be clear, this is obviously not what is happening with Eric. But let’s run with the scenario:
Number 1 could theoretically happen by natural laws, number 2 could not. But number 2 is more probable anyway.
I would contest that this is not the case. If you think that n° 2 is more probable, I would say it’s just measuring that the probability you assign to the supernatural is higher than 2^10k (besides, this is exactly Jaynes’ suggested way to numerically estimate intuitive probabilities). But your probability is just a prior: while n° 1 is justifiable by appealing to group invariance or symmetric ignorance, n° 2 just pops out of nowhere. It certainly feels that n° 2 should be more probable, but the wrong answer also feels right in the Wason selection task. This is what I was asking Eric: by what process were you able to eliminate every other possible explanation, so that the supernatural is the only remaining one? I suspect also that, in your hypothetical scenario, this would be the same process hidden in the sentence “by careful investigation”.
This is the part I cannot wrap around my mind: let’s say that evolution, as it’s presently understood, cannot explain the totality or even the birth of the life evolved on this planet. How can one jump from “not explained by present understanding of evolution” to “explained by a deity”? I mean, why the probability of the supernatural is so low compared to say, intelligent aliens intervention, panspermia or say a passing black hole that happens to create a violation of the laws of biochemistry?
Have I understood correctly that, once estabilished for whatever reason that a deity exists, that you choose which deity exactly based on your historical and moral preferences?
It is a serious mistake to assume that because something could happen by natural laws, it is automatically more probable than something which would be a violation of natural laws.
For example, suppose I flipped a coin 10,000 times in a row and always got heads. In theory there are many possible explanations for this. But suppose by careful investigation we had reduced it to two possibilities:
It was a fair coin, and this happened by pure luck.
God made it happen through a miraculous intervention.
Number 1 could theoretically happen by natural laws, number 2 could not. But number 2 is more probable anyway.
The same thing might well be true about explanations such as “a passing black hole that happens to create a violation of the laws of biochemistry.” I see no reason to think that such things are more probable than the supernatural.
(That said, I agree that Eric is mistaken about this.)
Just to be clear, this is obviously not what is happening with Eric. But let’s run with the scenario:
I would contest that this is not the case. If you think that n° 2 is more probable, I would say it’s just measuring that the probability you assign to the supernatural is higher than 2^10k (besides, this is exactly Jaynes’ suggested way to numerically estimate intuitive probabilities).
But your probability is just a prior: while n° 1 is justifiable by appealing to group invariance or symmetric ignorance, n° 2 just pops out of nowhere.
It certainly feels that n° 2 should be more probable, but the wrong answer also feels right in the Wason selection task.
This is what I was asking Eric: by what process were you able to eliminate every other possible explanation, so that the supernatural is the only remaining one?
I suspect also that, in your hypothetical scenario, this would be the same process hidden in the sentence “by careful investigation”.