Plus even a flowchart of the ideal strategy is hard to create without using black boxes or brute-force iterating every possible proof of something.
EDIT: Oh, and the humans played to win a game different from the nominal game. That distinction is important, because you can only observe them in the actual game and not the nominal one. (At CFAR workshops, PD for low stakes resulted in universal cooperation when it was done openly; the first time it was done semi-anonymously, there was a defector. There were several other differences as well, but the nominal stakes were similar.)
There exist LW readers who believe that Cooperate is the dominant strategy in PD.
Can you provide links to comments that are examples of this? If so, I’d like to look at them to confirm and then to make sure I have downvoted and/or corrected them as necessary. Without seeing the examples I assign roughly 0.5 probability to them existing, with most of the remaining probability mass going to “There exist comments that defy CDT in a way that some readers may consider to be equivalent to declaring that Cooperate is dominant but is in fact not a claim about strategic dominance at all”.
I had that discussion in person, so I can’t point to comments. There may have been some confusion about the claims made, such that the claim I understood them to be making is different from the claim that they made, and the specific game in question was 2-iteration PD with the nonstandard payoff matrix (50,50; 100,0; 0;100; 25,25), but I think they were using cached thoughts for the discussion, rather than something that applied to the specific case but not the general.
There exist LW readers who believe that Cooperate is the dominant strategy in PD.
Humans don’t only play to win, coupled with a comparatively obscure choice of programming language, simple bots will be in the majority.
Plus even a flowchart of the ideal strategy is hard to create without using black boxes or brute-force iterating every possible proof of something.
EDIT: Oh, and the humans played to win a game different from the nominal game. That distinction is important, because you can only observe them in the actual game and not the nominal one. (At CFAR workshops, PD for low stakes resulted in universal cooperation when it was done openly; the first time it was done semi-anonymously, there was a defector. There were several other differences as well, but the nominal stakes were similar.)
Can you provide links to comments that are examples of this? If so, I’d like to look at them to confirm and then to make sure I have downvoted and/or corrected them as necessary. Without seeing the examples I assign roughly 0.5 probability to them existing, with most of the remaining probability mass going to “There exist comments that defy CDT in a way that some readers may consider to be equivalent to declaring that Cooperate is dominant but is in fact not a claim about strategic dominance at all”.
I had that discussion in person, so I can’t point to comments. There may have been some confusion about the claims made, such that the claim I understood them to be making is different from the claim that they made, and the specific game in question was 2-iteration PD with the nonstandard payoff matrix (50,50; 100,0; 0;100; 25,25), but I think they were using cached thoughts for the discussion, rather than something that applied to the specific case but not the general.