Interesting point! It seems obvious in hindsight that if you reward people for making predictions that correspond to reality, they can benefit both by fitting their predictions to reality or fitting reality to their predictions. Certainly, it is an issue that come up even in real life in the context of sporting betting. That said, this particular spin on things hadn’t occurred to me, so thanks for sharing!
Interesting point! It seems obvious in hindsight that if you reward people for making predictions that correspond to reality, they can benefit both by fitting their predictions to reality or fitting reality to their predictions. Certainly, it is an issue that come up even in real life in the context of sporting betting. That said, this particular spin on things hadn’t occurred to me, so thanks for sharing!