Our track record in recent memory for “supplying weapons and training will make this country/government able to defend itself” is not great; Afghanistan in particular seemed to be seeking a world record on how quick they could fall apart and how limp a defense could be. It’s a pleasant surprise to actually be seeing results in Ukraine. One could argue that’s not the best comparision to make, but it’s undeniably the most salient.
Pakistan supplied weapons and safe havens to the Afghan insurgency. It worked extremely well.
I assume by “Our” you mean the United States? Russia invaded Afghanistan within living memory too. The United States supplied the Afghan mujahideen with weapons to fight the Soviet Union in the Soviet–Afghan War. I think Operation Cyclone is a better comparison to make than the 2001-2021 War in Afghanistan because the United States was on the side of the insurgents (and opposed to the invader-installed government) in the Soviet–Afghan War.
I was mostly responding to the implied “Why did Americans (and possibly people from other NATO countries) have such a bad prediction miss about how the conflict would play out.” I think I agree with everything you wrote above—in particular the invader-installed government seems to be an important distinction, and in a way that casually following world events from the US perspective would not lead one to realize.
Our track record in recent memory for “supplying weapons and training will make this country/government able to defend itself” is not great; Afghanistan in particular seemed to be seeking a world record on how quick they could fall apart and how limp a defense could be. It’s a pleasant surprise to actually be seeing results in Ukraine. One could argue that’s not the best comparision to make, but it’s undeniably the most salient.
Pakistan supplied weapons and safe havens to the Afghan insurgency. It worked extremely well.
I assume by “Our” you mean the United States? Russia invaded Afghanistan within living memory too. The United States supplied the Afghan mujahideen with weapons to fight the Soviet Union in the Soviet–Afghan War. I think Operation Cyclone is a better comparison to make than the 2001-2021 War in Afghanistan because the United States was on the side of the insurgents (and opposed to the invader-installed government) in the Soviet–Afghan War.
I was mostly responding to the implied “Why did Americans (and possibly people from other NATO countries) have such a bad prediction miss about how the conflict would play out.” I think I agree with everything you wrote above—in particular the invader-installed government seems to be an important distinction, and in a way that casually following world events from the US perspective would not lead one to realize.