There is an issue of ability vs. intention, no matter whether the North Korean leadership wants to destroy the US or South Korea they don’t have the ability to do any major harm. The real fear is that the regime collapses and we’re left with a massive humanitarian crisis.
Pretty sure nuking Seoul is worse than the regime in NK collapsing. I think annexation by either china or SK would be way better than the current system of starvation in NK.
Maybe a slow and controlled introduction of free enterprise, Deng Xiaoping-style, while maintaining a tight grip on political freedoms, at least until the economy recovers somewhat, could soften it. Incidentally, this is apparently the direction Kim Jong-un is carefully steering towards. Admittedly, slacklining seems like a child’s play compared to the perils he’d have to go through to land softly.
Some here. One of the most interesting parts of the essay was the aside claiming that NK saber rattling is an intentional effort to distraction S. Korean, US, and Chinese attention from thinking about the mechanics of unification.
Edit: I’ll just quote the interesting paragraph:
The way I read the North Korean sabre-rattling (and use) is that it is designed to keep the South Koreans and their allies off balance, focussing on crisis management and preventing war, and not – for instance – planning coherently for the probable collapse of their régime. After all, if there was a good reunification plan, it would become more likely.
It’s only anecdotal evidence, but my son, teaching in a small town near the DMZ, warned me that the topic is too sensitive for casual conversation. So Pyongyang may have spooked the South Korean public into treating the whole subject as unthinkable, because of its one unthinkable component, a nuclear conflict.
I was talking about this with a friend of mine, and it does seem like there is no outcome that’s not going to be hugely, hideously expensive. The costs of a war are obviously high—even if they don’t/can’t use nukes, they could knock Seoul right out of the global economy. But even if its peaceful you’d have this tidal wave of refugees into China and the South, and South Korea will be paying reunification costs for at least the next decade or so.
You can sort of see why SK and China are willing to pay to keep the status quo, and screw the starving millions.
South Korea will be paying reunification costs for at least the next decade or so.
Far longer than that. (West) Germany is apparently still effectively subsidizing (former) East Germany, more than 2 decades after unification—and I have read that West & East Germany were much closer in terms of development than North & South Korea are now. For the total costs of reunification, ‘trillions’ is probably the right order of magnitude to be looking at (even though it would eventually more than pay for itself, never mind the moral dimension).
I quite agree, on both parts. 25 million new consumers, catch-up growth, road networks from Seoul to Beijing, navigable waters, less political risk premium, etc.
It’s a gloomy picture though. A coup seems unlikely (given the Kim-religion) and it’ll probably be 2050-70 until Jong-un dies. I’ve got two hopes: the recent provocation is aimed at a domestic audience, and once he’s proved himself he’ll pull a Burma; or the international community doesn’t blink and resume aid, forcing them into some sort of opening. Not very high hopes though.
To expand: a massive burst of cheap labor, a peace dividend in winding down both militaries (on top of the reduction in risk premium) such as closing down military bases taking valuable Seoul-area real estate, and access to all NK’s mineral and natural resources.
I had a little dream scenario in my head when Jong Il died that Jong Un would have been secretly rebellious and reasonable and start implementing better policy bit by bit, but that clearly didn’t happen. My hope is that whoever actually has their hands on the buttons in charge of the bombs and military is more reasonable than Jong-Un, and that he gets taken out either by us or by someone close to him who has a more accurate view of reality. At this point, the international rhetoric would immediately start being toned down, and the de facto government could start making announcements about the world changing its mind or something to smooth over increased cooperation and peace and foreign aid.
There is an issue of ability vs. intention, no matter whether the North Korean leadership wants to destroy the US or South Korea they don’t have the ability to do any major harm. The real fear is that the regime collapses and we’re left with a massive humanitarian crisis.
Pretty sure nuking Seoul is worse than the regime in NK collapsing. I think annexation by either china or SK would be way better than the current system of starvation in NK.
Any thoughts about what a relatively soft landing for NK would look like?
Maybe a slow and controlled introduction of free enterprise, Deng Xiaoping-style, while maintaining a tight grip on political freedoms, at least until the economy recovers somewhat, could soften it. Incidentally, this is apparently the direction Kim Jong-un is carefully steering towards. Admittedly, slacklining seems like a child’s play compared to the perils he’d have to go through to land softly.
Some here. One of the most interesting parts of the essay was the aside claiming that NK saber rattling is an intentional effort to distraction S. Korean, US, and Chinese attention from thinking about the mechanics of unification.
Edit: I’ll just quote the interesting paragraph:
Emphasis mine.
I was talking about this with a friend of mine, and it does seem like there is no outcome that’s not going to be hugely, hideously expensive. The costs of a war are obviously high—even if they don’t/can’t use nukes, they could knock Seoul right out of the global economy. But even if its peaceful you’d have this tidal wave of refugees into China and the South, and South Korea will be paying reunification costs for at least the next decade or so.
You can sort of see why SK and China are willing to pay to keep the status quo, and screw the starving millions.
Far longer than that. (West) Germany is apparently still effectively subsidizing (former) East Germany, more than 2 decades after unification—and I have read that West & East Germany were much closer in terms of development than North & South Korea are now. For the total costs of reunification, ‘trillions’ is probably the right order of magnitude to be looking at (even though it would eventually more than pay for itself, never mind the moral dimension).
I quite agree, on both parts. 25 million new consumers, catch-up growth, road networks from Seoul to Beijing, navigable waters, less political risk premium, etc.
It’s a gloomy picture though. A coup seems unlikely (given the Kim-religion) and it’ll probably be 2050-70 until Jong-un dies. I’ve got two hopes: the recent provocation is aimed at a domestic audience, and once he’s proved himself he’ll pull a Burma; or the international community doesn’t blink and resume aid, forcing them into some sort of opening. Not very high hopes though.
To expand: a massive burst of cheap labor, a peace dividend in winding down both militaries (on top of the reduction in risk premium) such as closing down military bases taking valuable Seoul-area real estate, and access to all NK’s mineral and natural resources.
I had a little dream scenario in my head when Jong Il died that Jong Un would have been secretly rebellious and reasonable and start implementing better policy bit by bit, but that clearly didn’t happen. My hope is that whoever actually has their hands on the buttons in charge of the bombs and military is more reasonable than Jong-Un, and that he gets taken out either by us or by someone close to him who has a more accurate view of reality. At this point, the international rhetoric would immediately start being toned down, and the de facto government could start making announcements about the world changing its mind or something to smooth over increased cooperation and peace and foreign aid.