There is great debate as to what probability you should use in this case.
Using UDT, it seems straightforward that a contract with a utility of 1 given a big universe has an expected utility of 1⁄2. It’s not clear to me to if that means the probability should be 1⁄2, but the whole point is to be able to compute expected utilities.
Using UDT, it seems straightforward that a contract with a utility of 1 given a big universe has an expected utility of 1⁄2. It’s not clear to me to if that means the probability should be 1⁄2, but the whole point is to be able to compute expected utilities.