First, billions or even trillions might not make much of a difference to prices, according to the logic of the argument I gave above.
That’s a good point. For some reason it didn’t click the first time I read it, but you’re right. It probably depends on precisely what most other investors expect—if they’re primarily investing based on their expectations of price movements, the prices might be swayed, but if they’re trading on value, they probably would not.
As to what constitutes ethical investment, that would certainly be the first thing to figure out. I’m not sure you would find a clear consensus even among the LW community, let alone the wider world.
I’m not certain what you mean by ‘minimal’.
You’re right, I should’ve been clearer. I meant it in the sense that such an investment would be completely indistinguishable from noise to the market at large, and would consequently make nearly no difference at all. If many people made these types of investments using the same definition of “ethical” it might be noticed; if one person makes an investment it would probably be very hard to figure out that it’s correlated with ethics or to decide that it’s worth considering for future decisions (that it’s not one-off).
I don’t think there’s much doubt that ethical investment is part of a wider set of attitudes which have led many companies to some combination of changing their policies and changing their self-presentation to fit better with common ideas of what ethical and unethical practices are.
I’m actually not entirely sure about that. I haven’t investigated the issue very closely, but my impression has been that where companies changed their practices, this has mostly occurred as a result of consumer boycotts (or just unfavorable media coverage), of wishing to retain valuable employees, or of wishing to remain in favor with governments. Do you have any particular evidence in mind?
If no-one actually knows what good a charity does, and no feedback mechanism exists to put an end to charities that do harm or no good (since, eg, the people served by the charities are totally disconnected from the people who fund them), there is no reason why many or most charities could not be totally ineffective or harmful.
My impression is that at least in the last decade or so this has not been the case. While I don’t know the specifics, it is my impression that GiveWell, for example, does extensive research to determine which charity actually has high impact (on quality-adjusted life years). I have also read that Bill Gates focuses on ensuring effective use of funds and hitting actual goals with his Foundation.
I do agree with your optimism about investment being beneficial, though.
That’s a good point. For some reason it didn’t click the first time I read it, but you’re right. It probably depends on precisely what most other investors expect—if they’re primarily investing based on their expectations of price movements, the prices might be swayed, but if they’re trading on value, they probably would not.
As to what constitutes ethical investment, that would certainly be the first thing to figure out. I’m not sure you would find a clear consensus even among the LW community, let alone the wider world.
You’re right, I should’ve been clearer. I meant it in the sense that such an investment would be completely indistinguishable from noise to the market at large, and would consequently make nearly no difference at all. If many people made these types of investments using the same definition of “ethical” it might be noticed; if one person makes an investment it would probably be very hard to figure out that it’s correlated with ethics or to decide that it’s worth considering for future decisions (that it’s not one-off).
I’m actually not entirely sure about that. I haven’t investigated the issue very closely, but my impression has been that where companies changed their practices, this has mostly occurred as a result of consumer boycotts (or just unfavorable media coverage), of wishing to retain valuable employees, or of wishing to remain in favor with governments. Do you have any particular evidence in mind?
My impression is that at least in the last decade or so this has not been the case. While I don’t know the specifics, it is my impression that GiveWell, for example, does extensive research to determine which charity actually has high impact (on quality-adjusted life years). I have also read that Bill Gates focuses on ensuring effective use of funds and hitting actual goals with his Foundation.
I do agree with your optimism about investment being beneficial, though.