would you want to browse all predictions, even ones by people you’ve never heard of?
Yes, all predictions.
how do you know the randos you’re betting against won’t just run off with your money when you lose, and refuse to pay up when you win? Maybe you just trust the-sort-of-person-who-uses-this-site to be honorable?
I’d probably by default trust anyone with a LW karma of > [some threshold], or someone with a twitter account which is willing to confirm their identify, or in general someone who has written something I find insightful. If I’m feeling particularly paranoid, I might contact them outside your platform before making a bet, but I imagine that in most cases outside the first few ones, I probably wouldn’t bother. I’d also expect to find out rather rapidly if people don’t pay out. Also, from past experience using similar setups (handshake bets on the Polymarket Discord), people do care about the reputation of their anonymous aliases.
Yes, all predictions.
I’d probably by default trust anyone with a LW karma of > [some threshold], or someone with a twitter account which is willing to confirm their identify, or in general someone who has written something I find insightful. If I’m feeling particularly paranoid, I might contact them outside your platform before making a bet, but I imagine that in most cases outside the first few ones, I probably wouldn’t bother. I’d also expect to find out rather rapidly if people don’t pay out. Also, from past experience using similar setups (handshake bets on the Polymarket Discord), people do care about the reputation of their anonymous aliases.