The high-level reason is that the 1e12N model is not that much better at prediction than the 2N model. You can correct for most of the correlation even with only a vague guess at how different the AI and human probabilities are, and most AI and human probabilities aren’t going to be that different in a way that produces a correlation the human finds suspicious. I think that the largest correlations are going to be produced by the places the AI and the human have the biggest differences in probabilities, which are likely also going to be the places where the 2N model has the biggest differences in probabilities, so they should be not that hard to correct.
I’m curious whether you think this is the main obstacle. If we had a version of the correlation-consistency approach that always gave the direct translator minimal expected consistency loss, do we as-of-yet lack a counterexample for it?
I think it wouldn’t be clear that extending the counterexample would be possible, although I suspect it would be. It might require exhibiting more concrete details about how the consistency check would be defeated, which would be interesting. In some sense, maintaining consistency across many inputs is something that you expect to be pretty hard for the human simulator to do because it doesn’t know what set of inputs it’s being checked for. I would be excited about a consistency check that gave the direct translator minimal expected consistency loss. Note that I would also be interested in basically any concrete proposal for a consistency check that seemed like it was actually workable.
The high-level reason is that the 1e12N model is not that much better at prediction than the 2N model. You can correct for most of the correlation even with only a vague guess at how different the AI and human probabilities are, and most AI and human probabilities aren’t going to be that different in a way that produces a correlation the human finds suspicious. I think that the largest correlations are going to be produced by the places the AI and the human have the biggest differences in probabilities, which are likely also going to be the places where the 2N model has the biggest differences in probabilities, so they should be not that hard to correct.
I think it wouldn’t be clear that extending the counterexample would be possible, although I suspect it would be. It might require exhibiting more concrete details about how the consistency check would be defeated, which would be interesting. In some sense, maintaining consistency across many inputs is something that you expect to be pretty hard for the human simulator to do because it doesn’t know what set of inputs it’s being checked for. I would be excited about a consistency check that gave the direct translator minimal expected consistency loss. Note that I would also be interested in basically any concrete proposal for a consistency check that seemed like it was actually workable.