In the short-medium term (next 30 years, say), change is going to be gradual. It will take a LONG time to overcome all the edge cases of current driver, traveler, and pedestrian expectations. We’ll see more ride-share and semi-autonomous, and portions of the ride-share will become autonomous, but not a lot of end-to-end differences.
I haven’t seen much study of the demand side of things—what is the actual price/time/convenience elasticity of common travel desires. I know that commute times stay fairly constant—people move further out when roads improve. I don’t see why that will change—people will take more distance (and cheaper/roomier housing) over less time/resources for their commute. I do strongly expect that people will simply travel longer and more often as it gets cheaper/easier to do so.
Rail is here to stay, as it combines actual efficiency of resources with the populist demand for central provisioning and subsidies. Busses tick the same boxes (though less convincingly), and probably stay for the same reason.
In the short-medium term (next 30 years, say), change is going to be gradual. It will take a LONG time to overcome all the edge cases of current driver, traveler, and pedestrian expectations. We’ll see more ride-share and semi-autonomous, and portions of the ride-share will become autonomous, but not a lot of end-to-end differences.
I haven’t seen much study of the demand side of things—what is the actual price/time/convenience elasticity of common travel desires. I know that commute times stay fairly constant—people move further out when roads improve. I don’t see why that will change—people will take more distance (and cheaper/roomier housing) over less time/resources for their commute. I do strongly expect that people will simply travel longer and more often as it gets cheaper/easier to do so.
Rail is here to stay, as it combines actual efficiency of resources with the populist demand for central provisioning and subsidies. Busses tick the same boxes (though less convincingly), and probably stay for the same reason.