I still think that trains and subways will make sense for major arteries, and buses for very common (especially not-straight-line) routes.
I do think mixed-use-planning would both reduce trips and increase the impact of autonomous vehicles by making longer-distance commutes less common. However, there’s a lot of friction from other parts of society. It’s easier to change jobs (and job locations) than to move, especially if you own instead of rent, and especially especially if you live with a partner and you each work in different places in and around the city.
Yeah, I’m not convinced in either direction that the efficiency boost from autonomous vehicles will be able to overcome Smeed’s law ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smeed%27s_law ).
I still think that trains and subways will make sense for major arteries, and buses for very common (especially not-straight-line) routes.
I do think mixed-use-planning would both reduce trips and increase the impact of autonomous vehicles by making longer-distance commutes less common. However, there’s a lot of friction from other parts of society. It’s easier to change jobs (and job locations) than to move, especially if you own instead of rent, and especially especially if you live with a partner and you each work in different places in and around the city.