Scratching my head over whether logic/rational arguments/opining on probabilities by random internet people is the best path toward finding out what’s capital-T true here. This doesn’t seem to be a case where you can pull up the evidence, look at base rates, and calculate whether Annie is telling the truth or not based on probabilities.
It sounds like Annie has struggled with mental health issues from quite an early age—as young as 5 or 6, which also manifested later as physical health issues, and what’s disturbing to me is the repeated lack of support from her family members throughout.
It saddens me that she has tried to speak to her mother and brothers about what happened and has been repeatedly ignored or invalidated. And that despite her being the primary beneficiary of her father’s 401K, her family chose to withhold the money she would have used to take time off work to restore her health. When she requested that Sam help promote her podcast he denied her request because it didn’t make sense for his business. Sam and their mom denied her request for financial support so she wouldn’t have to turn to sex work to make ends meet.
It actually sounds like her family has repeatedly made choices to prevent Annie from healing past wounds and building a stable foundation for herself.
I find these decisions by Sam to deny his own sister financial, emotional, and spiritual support don’t reflect well on his character and don’t bode well for his ability to steer the development of a compassionate AGI that will do what’s best for humanity.
Sorry for the delayed response—yes, I think this kind of gets at the heart of the matter. I think, though I did a pretty good job with being rational in this post, and trying to make rational, unbiased claims from/using the information that exists, I could have been a bit more refined and clear-cut.
I honestly feel a bit bad, because this is an important issue, and I hope I didn’t screw things up by (unintentionally) presenting things in a irrational or biased way. I’ll try to be very rational and unbiased in this comment.
I think my statement that I was “trying to figure out the truth” in an earlier comment was misguided and imprecise. You were keen to notice this. In a situation like this, there are large amounts of uncertainty, and there is currently no proof of misconduct (that I’ve seen.)
I think what this post does is {provide a (relatively) accurate description of the state of affairs regarding Annie’s claims.} I do feel pretty good about the way in which I presented the information relevant to this matter in this post. Though I don’t want to necessarily “take shots” at Elizabeth Weil, whose nymag article provided basically the only significant written third-party acknowledgment of Annie’s claims, I will say that I prefer the (hopefully, more) objective, straight-from-the-source, uncertainty-acknowledging approach I’ve taken here.
The key thing here is that, currently, the primary information we have is:
Claims that Annie has made on social media, as well as a few pictures of her from when she was sick that she took, and a few screenshots of her social media that potentially indicate, but do not provably or definitively, indicate that she experienced shadowbanning, let alone that the low engagement/shadowbanning occured because of Sam. It is important to avoid the conjunction fallacy:
Let A = the event that Annie Altman, or (digital) media relating to her did indeed experience shadowbanning, low engagement, etc. Let B = the event that Sam Altman caused A to occur.
Then P(A ∧ B) ≤ P(A).
To me, it seems very hard to prove that one has been shadowbanned. To me, this would require proof of an arrangement between a “shadowbanning-requester” (e.g. Sam Altman) and the “shadowbanners” (e.g. developers or mods at Instagram, X, etc.), or direct evidence of actions taken and/or code written by mods, devs, etc. that shadowbanned Annie’s content. In this matter, that has not been provided.
A 2018 podcast episode that Annie did with Sam, Jack, and Max. Yes, while it is potentially suspicious that Sam cut Annie off around 24:50 ish, it doesn’t prove anything.
A Twitter post from 2018 where Sam Altman shared a link to Annie’s Youtube channel.
A variety of other social media posts from Annie that, while they are not inconsistent with the story she is telling / claims she is making about Sam, do not provide proof for the claims she has made about Sam.
For example, Annie seems to have posted multiple social media posts showing her in Hawai’i at the times that she claims she was. So this does corroborate the part of the larger claim-story in which Annie claims she was in Hawai’i at time X. However, these only support that individual part of her story; they provide no evidence for anything else.
So, I think the main thing that this post has going for it is that it aggregates what is out there in a relatively objective/unbiased way. That is, it aggregates (many of) the claims Annie has made, and related media that exists on the Internet.
Scratching my head over whether logic/rational arguments/opining on probabilities by random internet people is the best path toward finding out what’s capital-T true here. This doesn’t seem to be a case where you can pull up the evidence, look at base rates, and calculate whether Annie is telling the truth or not based on probabilities.
It sounds like Annie has struggled with mental health issues from quite an early age—as young as 5 or 6, which also manifested later as physical health issues, and what’s disturbing to me is the repeated lack of support from her family members throughout.
It saddens me that she has tried to speak to her mother and brothers about what happened and has been repeatedly ignored or invalidated. And that despite her being the primary beneficiary of her father’s 401K, her family chose to withhold the money she would have used to take time off work to restore her health. When she requested that Sam help promote her podcast he denied her request because it didn’t make sense for his business. Sam and their mom denied her request for financial support so she wouldn’t have to turn to sex work to make ends meet.
It actually sounds like her family has repeatedly made choices to prevent Annie from healing past wounds and building a stable foundation for herself.
I find these decisions by Sam to deny his own sister financial, emotional, and spiritual support don’t reflect well on his character and don’t bode well for his ability to steer the development of a compassionate AGI that will do what’s best for humanity.
Sorry for the delayed response—yes, I think this kind of gets at the heart of the matter. I think, though I did a pretty good job with being rational in this post, and trying to make rational, unbiased claims from/using the information that exists, I could have been a bit more refined and clear-cut.
I honestly feel a bit bad, because this is an important issue, and I hope I didn’t screw things up by (unintentionally) presenting things in a irrational or biased way. I’ll try to be very rational and unbiased in this comment.
I think my statement that I was “trying to figure out the truth” in an earlier comment was misguided and imprecise. You were keen to notice this. In a situation like this, there are large amounts of uncertainty, and there is currently no proof of misconduct (that I’ve seen.)
I think what this post does is {provide a (relatively) accurate description of the state of affairs regarding Annie’s claims.} I do feel pretty good about the way in which I presented the information relevant to this matter in this post. Though I don’t want to necessarily “take shots” at Elizabeth Weil, whose nymag article provided basically the only significant written third-party acknowledgment of Annie’s claims, I will say that I prefer the (hopefully, more) objective, straight-from-the-source, uncertainty-acknowledging approach I’ve taken here.
The key thing here is that, currently, the primary information we have is:
Claims that Annie has made on social media, as well as a few pictures of her from when she was sick that she took, and a few screenshots of her social media that potentially indicate, but do not provably or definitively, indicate that she experienced shadowbanning, let alone that the low engagement/shadowbanning occured because of Sam. It is important to avoid the conjunction fallacy:
Let A = the event that Annie Altman, or (digital) media relating to her did indeed experience shadowbanning, low engagement, etc.
Let B = the event that Sam Altman caused A to occur.
Then
P(A ∧ B) ≤ P(A).
To me, it seems very hard to prove that one has been shadowbanned. To me, this would require proof of an arrangement between a “shadowbanning-requester” (e.g. Sam Altman) and the “shadowbanners” (e.g. developers or mods at Instagram, X, etc.), or direct evidence of actions taken and/or code written by mods, devs, etc. that shadowbanned Annie’s content. In this matter, that has not been provided.
A 2018 podcast episode that Annie did with Sam, Jack, and Max. Yes, while it is potentially suspicious that Sam cut Annie off around 24:50 ish, it doesn’t prove anything.
A Twitter post from 2018 where Sam Altman shared a link to Annie’s Youtube channel.
A variety of other social media posts from Annie that, while they are not inconsistent with the story she is telling / claims she is making about Sam, do not provide proof for the claims she has made about Sam.
For example, Annie seems to have posted multiple social media posts showing her in Hawai’i at the times that she claims she was. So this does corroborate the part of the larger claim-story in which Annie claims she was in Hawai’i at time X. However, these only support that individual part of her story; they provide no evidence for anything else.
So, I think the main thing that this post has going for it is that it aggregates what is out there in a relatively objective/unbiased way. That is, it aggregates (many of) the claims Annie has made, and related media that exists on the Internet.