I’d like to add some nuance to the “innocent until proven guilty” assumption in the concluding remarks.
Standard of evidence is a major question in legal matters and heavily context-dependent. “Innocent until proven guilty” is a popular understanding of the standard for criminal guilt and it makes sense for that to be “beyond a reasonable doubt” because the question at hand is whether a state founded on principles of liberty should take away the freedom of one of its citizens. Other legal disputes, such as in civil liability, have different standards of evidence, including “more likely than not” and “clear and convincing.”
What standard we should apply here is an open question, which ultimately depends on what decisions we are trying to make. In this case, those questions seem to be: “can we trust Sam Altman’s moral character to make high-stakes decisions?” and perhaps “(how much) should we signal-boost Annie’s claims?”. On the one hand, the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard of criminal guilt seems far too high. On the other hand, instant condemnation without any consideration (as in, not even looking at the claims in any detail) seems too low.
Note that this question of standards is entirely separate from considerations of priors, base rates, and the like. All of those things matter, but they are questions of whether the standards are met. Without a clear understanding of what those standards even are, it’s easy to get lost. I don’t have a strong answer to this myself, but I encourage readers and anyone following up on this to consider:
1. What, if anything, am I actually trying to decide here? 2. How certain do I need to be in order to make those decisions?
I’d like to add some nuance to the “innocent until proven guilty” assumption in the concluding remarks.
Standard of evidence is a major question in legal matters and heavily context-dependent. “Innocent until proven guilty” is a popular understanding of the standard for criminal guilt and it makes sense for that to be “beyond a reasonable doubt” because the question at hand is whether a state founded on principles of liberty should take away the freedom of one of its citizens. Other legal disputes, such as in civil liability, have different standards of evidence, including “more likely than not” and “clear and convincing.”
What standard we should apply here is an open question, which ultimately depends on what decisions we are trying to make. In this case, those questions seem to be: “can we trust Sam Altman’s moral character to make high-stakes decisions?” and perhaps “(how much) should we signal-boost Annie’s claims?”. On the one hand, the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard of criminal guilt seems far too high. On the other hand, instant condemnation without any consideration (as in, not even looking at the claims in any detail) seems too low.
Note that this question of standards is entirely separate from considerations of priors, base rates, and the like. All of those things matter, but they are questions of whether the standards are met. Without a clear understanding of what those standards even are, it’s easy to get lost. I don’t have a strong answer to this myself, but I encourage readers and anyone following up on this to consider:
1. What, if anything, am I actually trying to decide here?
2. How certain do I need to be in order to make those decisions?