What if one thinks (as do I) that not only do prediction markets do badly, but so do I? If both me and the market aren’t doing better than random, do I have positive expected utility for betting?
Also, I’m not sure how intrade’s payoff calculation works—how much does one stand to gain per dollar on a bet at those odds? I think I’m pretty risk-averse if I’m gambling $250.00 for a $10.00 gain.
Anyway. My cash-free prediction is Obama by 2 points in general.
What if one thinks (as do I) that not only do prediction markets do badly, but so do I? If both me and the market aren’t doing better than random, do I have positive expected utility for betting?
Also, I’m not sure how intrade’s payoff calculation works—how much does one stand to gain per dollar on a bet at those odds? I think I’m pretty risk-averse if I’m gambling $250.00 for a $10.00 gain.
Anyway. My cash-free prediction is Obama by 2 points in general.