I’m a little puzzled by all the above. A prediction market is supposed to squeeze out the last drop of (solvent) expert knowledge concerning a given outcome, but voting is a complex and chaotic phenomenon where ‘expert knowledge’ is thin on the ground or non-existent. If anyone could reliably forecast election results, I think we’d know about it by now. Think weather forecasting, as a comparison.
So we’re left with, at best, a few people who really believe in their favorite groundhog, and are prepared to place serious money, and others who are prepared to have a flutter on their hunch or their hopes.
The result, even ignoring any possible manipulation, looks awfully like a poll of forecasts, distorted by individuals’ like of betting and amounts of spare cash as selection biases. Polls of forecasts are less reliable than polls of intentions.
And as for Phil, who seems to think not betting is suspect, perhaps Un-American, or perhaps downright criminal, consider that many people have a conservative mindset, don’t bet as a general rule, and so just couldn’t be bothered.
Apart from which, my Dad told me you should work for a living and not to bet, and my Dad is an Authority.
I’m a little puzzled by all the above. A prediction market is supposed to squeeze out the last drop of (solvent) expert knowledge concerning a given outcome, but voting is a complex and chaotic phenomenon where ‘expert knowledge’ is thin on the ground or non-existent. If anyone could reliably forecast election results, I think we’d know about it by now. Think weather forecasting, as a comparison. So we’re left with, at best, a few people who really believe in their favorite groundhog, and are prepared to place serious money, and others who are prepared to have a flutter on their hunch or their hopes. The result, even ignoring any possible manipulation, looks awfully like a poll of forecasts, distorted by individuals’ like of betting and amounts of spare cash as selection biases. Polls of forecasts are less reliable than polls of intentions. And as for Phil, who seems to think not betting is suspect, perhaps Un-American, or perhaps downright criminal, consider that many people have a conservative mindset, don’t bet as a general rule, and so just couldn’t be bothered. Apart from which, my Dad told me you should work for a living and not to bet, and my Dad is an Authority.