As Eliezer said, prediction markets may react to the information conveyed by polls, but they certainly don’t just follow the polls; for example, there was a period of time when among the Republican candidates, Huckabee was the front runner in national polls. For solid reasons he was never the front runner on Intrade.
As Eliezer said, prediction markets may react to the information conveyed by polls, but they certainly don’t just follow the polls; for example, there was a period of time when among the Republican candidates, Huckabee was the front runner in national polls. For solid reasons he was never the front runner on Intrade.