I think the idea is that the robot there’s an AGI server and a solar cell and one teleoperated robot body in an otherwise-empty post-apocalyptic Earth, and then that one teleoperated robot body could build a janky second teleoperated robot body from salvaged car parts or whatever, and then the two of them could find more car parts to build a third and fourth, and those four could build up to eight, etc.
I agree that literally one robot wouldn’t get much done.
manufacture new chips/photovoltaic panels
I think chips would be much much more likely to be a limiter than solar panels. Existing rooftop solar panels are I think designed to last 25-30 years, and would probably still work OK long after that. There are lots of solar cell types (not just silicon, but also dye-sensitized, polymer, amorphous silicon, perovskite, various other types of thin-film, etc.). I don’t know the whole supply chain for any of those but I strongly suspect that at least some approach is straightforward compared to chips.
Modern supply chains are incredibly complex, and manufacturing techniques for advanced technology is incredibly sophisticated and low tolerance.
I don’t think we can infer much from that. Humans are not optimizing for simple supply chains, they’re optimizing for cost at scale. For example, the robots could build a bunch of e-beam lithography machines instead of EUV photolithography; it would be WAY slower and more capital-intensive, so humans would never do that, but maybe an AI would, because the underlying tech is much simpler (I think).
and then that one teleoperated robot body could build a janky second teleoperated robot body from salvaged car parts or whatever
My suspicion is that you lose reliability and finesse each time you do this, and cause some wear and tear on the original robot, such that this approach doesn’t bootstrap.
I think the idea is that the robot there’s an AGI server and a solar cell and one teleoperated robot body in an otherwise-empty post-apocalyptic Earth, and then that one teleoperated robot body could build a janky second teleoperated robot body from salvaged car parts or whatever, and then the two of them could find more car parts to build a third and fourth, and those four could build up to eight, etc.
I agree that literally one robot wouldn’t get much done.
I think chips would be much much more likely to be a limiter than solar panels. Existing rooftop solar panels are I think designed to last 25-30 years, and would probably still work OK long after that. There are lots of solar cell types (not just silicon, but also dye-sensitized, polymer, amorphous silicon, perovskite, various other types of thin-film, etc.). I don’t know the whole supply chain for any of those but I strongly suspect that at least some approach is straightforward compared to chips.
I don’t think we can infer much from that. Humans are not optimizing for simple supply chains, they’re optimizing for cost at scale. For example, the robots could build a bunch of e-beam lithography machines instead of EUV photolithography; it would be WAY slower and more capital-intensive, so humans would never do that, but maybe an AI would, because the underlying tech is much simpler (I think).
Mostly agree. Just one point:
My suspicion is that you lose reliability and finesse each time you do this, and cause some wear and tear on the original robot, such that this approach doesn’t bootstrap.