it’s fine with even 1% accuracy with 1000:1 payout difference.
Well, if 1% accuracy means 99% of one-boxers are predicted to two-box, and 99% of two-boxers are expected to one-box, you should two-box. The prediction needs to at least be correlated with reality.
Sorry, described it in too few words. “1% better than random” is what I meant. If 51.5% of two-boxers get only the small payout, and 51.5% of one-boxers get the big payout, then one-boxing is obvious.
Well, if 1% accuracy means 99% of one-boxers are predicted to two-box, and 99% of two-boxers are expected to one-box, you should two-box. The prediction needs to at least be correlated with reality.
Sorry, described it in too few words. “1% better than random” is what I meant. If 51.5% of two-boxers get only the small payout, and 51.5% of one-boxers get the big payout, then one-boxing is obvious.