The end of your example gets hard to follow. In particular I don’t know what this means:
goals with pP ( -log(P) )in the 2-4 range
On the other hand it sounds like you’re reaching a qualitatively correct solution.
pP is the negative logarithm of P, the probability of the ‘jackpot payoff’.
If money were of linear value, I would be ambivalent about investing $10k in a startup that had a .01 chance of making a million dollars; for P=.01, pP=2
The end of your example gets hard to follow. In particular I don’t know what this means:
On the other hand it sounds like you’re reaching a qualitatively correct solution.
pP is the negative logarithm of P, the probability of the ‘jackpot payoff’.
If money were of linear value, I would be ambivalent about investing $10k in a startup that had a .01 chance of making a million dollars; for P=.01, pP=2