I expect that full stack intelligence explosion could look more like “make the whole economy bigger using a bunch of AI labor” rather than specifically automating the chip production process. (That said, in practice I expect explicit focused automation of chip production to be an important part of the picture, probably the majority of the acceleration effect.) Minimally, you need to scale up energy at some point.
Agreed on the substance, we just didn’t explain this well.
You talk about “chip technology” feedback loop as taking months, but presumably improvements to ASML take longer as they often require building new fabs?
Agreed!
Re Flop/joule also agree on the substance—we went with FLOP/joule bc we wanted a clean estimate for the OOMs before reaching limits for each factor. I believe our estimate of the total OOMs to limits (including both chip tech and chip production) is right, but you’re right that there are ways to intutively improve chip tech that don’t increase FLOP/joule
Agreed on the substance, we just didn’t explain this well.
Agreed!
Re Flop/joule also agree on the substance—we went with FLOP/joule bc we wanted a clean estimate for the OOMs before reaching limits for each factor. I believe our estimate of the total OOMs to limits (including both chip tech and chip production) is right, but you’re right that there are ways to intutively improve chip tech that don’t increase FLOP/joule