I’m not especially surprised. Aside from possible confounding factors like the rise of Free & free stuff (strongest in subcultures) which obviously wouldn’t get counted in commercial metrics, technological and economic development means that mass media can spread even further than Internet-borne stuff can. cue anecdotes about Mickey Mouse posters in African huts, etc.
The subcultures seem to me to appeal mostly to the restricted 1st World wealthier demographics that powered the mass media you are thinking of; one might caricature it as ‘white’ stuff. It makes sense that a subculture like anime/manga or FLOSS, which primarily is cannibalizing the ‘white’ market, can shrink ever more in percentage terms as the old ‘white’ stuff like Disney expand overseas into South America, Africa, Southeast Asia and so on.
If you had formulated your thesis in absolute numbers (‘there will be more FLOSS enthusiasts in 2020 than 2010’), then I think you would be absolutely right. You might be able to get away with restricted areas too (‘there will be more otaku in Japan in 2020 than 2010, despite a ~static population’). But nothing more.
I’m not especially surprised. Aside from possible confounding factors like the rise of Free & free stuff (strongest in subcultures) which obviously wouldn’t get counted in commercial metrics, technological and economic development means that mass media can spread even further than Internet-borne stuff can. cue anecdotes about Mickey Mouse posters in African huts, etc.
The subcultures seem to me to appeal mostly to the restricted 1st World wealthier demographics that powered the mass media you are thinking of; one might caricature it as ‘white’ stuff. It makes sense that a subculture like anime/manga or FLOSS, which primarily is cannibalizing the ‘white’ market, can shrink ever more in percentage terms as the old ‘white’ stuff like Disney expand overseas into South America, Africa, Southeast Asia and so on.
If you had formulated your thesis in absolute numbers (‘there will be more FLOSS enthusiasts in 2020 than 2010’), then I think you would be absolutely right. You might be able to get away with restricted areas too (‘there will be more otaku in Japan in 2020 than 2010, despite a ~static population’). But nothing more.