Re the rot13 bit, I called it that Qhzoyrqber xvyyrq ure based on text evidence before that was revealed, so the idea that it’s Obarf has always seemed wrong to me. They can’t both have done it, you know?
Nzryvn vf gur bar jub fcrnxf hc va gur Jvmratnzbg, gryyvat Qhzoyrqber “Qba’g rira guvax nobhg vg” jura Qhzoyrqber pbafvqref pbasrffvat gb Anepvffn’f zheqre.
Jura V bayl xarj nobhg #1, V jebgr vg bss nf n cbffvoyr pbvapvqrapr. Ohg gura crqnagreevsvp cbvagrq bhg #2 gb zr, naq V fgebatyl hctenqrq gur ulcbgurfvf’f cebonovyvgl. Gura yngre #3 unccrarq, naq V orpnzr nf pregnva nf V nz abj.
And if that’s not as close as you can actually come to a Bayesian updating process when reading a fiction book, where the only experiment you can perform is “Wait for more chapters and then read them”, I would love to learn what’s legitimately closer.
Amelia Bones isn’t a member of the Order of the Phoenix.
Emmeline wasn’t a member of the Order of the Phoenix any more, they had disbanded after the end of the last war. And during the war, she’d known, they’d all known, that Director Crouch had quietly approved of their off-the-books battle.
Director Bones wasn’t Crouch.
[...]
“That depends,” Amelia said in a hard voice. “Are you here to help us catch criminals, or to protect them from the consequences of their actions?” Are you going to try to stop the killer of my brother from getting her well-deserved Kiss, old meddler? From what Amelia heard, Dumbledore had gotten smarter toward the end of the war, mostly due to Mad-Eye’s nonstop nagging; but had relapsed into his foolish mercies the instant Voldemort’s body was found.
One wonders why she would even know about it at all, if she had nothing to do with it.
Well, I think Lucius probably made sure a long time ago that everyone knew what Dumbledore (supposedly) said to him. I didn’t get the feeling from that scene in the Wizengamot that Dumbledore-killing-Narcissa was any kind of a secret idea that people were just then finding out about.
This does rather change my view of some of the peripheral details, though. Previously, one possibility I pictured was Dumbledore restraining Amelia from her vengeance until Aberforth died, then relenting. I knew Amelia Bones wasn’t in the OotP, and I knew she felt distaste at Dumbledore’s softness, but somehow I never completely drew the conclusion that she wouldn’t care one whit about what Dumbledore said or thought, and therefore probably wouldn’t have cared if he had tried to restrain her.
Perhaps more likely, then, is the other way I pictured it: that Amelia couldn’t get to Narcissa by herself, and after Aberforth’s death, Dumbledore actively approached Amelia and said “Okay, I’m ready to help. I’ll be the ward-breaker, you do the deed.”
I think you miss that this is a work of fiction that has an author. Think about why the author was motivated to make certain choices instead of thinking why the characters were motivated.
That is actually the other reason that I believe as I do. It seems like a much more interesting storytelling decision for my theory to be correct than for the competitor theory to be.
How is it more interesting storytelling for the guy everyone thinks did it to have done it, as opposed to “Here’s a puzzle and the clues to figure it out”?
Because it was a puzzle for the first what, 80 chapters? We’re getting close to the end of the story as of about two arcs ago, it’s time for puzzles to get solved. it’s not an interesting enough puzzle to justify a double twist, IMO.
You think it’s not an interesting puzzle because you think it’s not a puzzle at all. :) And wouldn’t it only be a double-twist if Dumbledore did do it? If Amelia Bones did it it would just be a single twist.
Baseline assumption: Team Death Eater is slandering Dumbledore when they claim he burned Narcissa Malfoy alive.
Twist: Nope, Dumbledore actually did it.
Double Twist: Or it was some random lady who used the word “burn” once. You know, whatever.
One of these twists is revealing of important information about a main character, future motivation for interesting developments(Harry being forced to choose between Draco and Dumbledore over the promise, or Draco having to forgive his mother’s murderer), a subversion of our expectations, and is reasonably predictable from evidence dropped in advance. One of them is irrelevant and a complete cop-out of all the character development built into the original twist. Take a guess which one I assume is more likely to be true.
Amelia killing Narcissa would be the sort of thing M Night Shyamalan would write.
Or it was some random lady who used the word “burn” once. You know, whatever.
If that were indeed an accurate summary of the situation, I would agree with you. I did agree with you, when that was the only potential clue I knew of. All three major clues would be circumstantial in real life, but when you step out a level and see that Eliezer writes this story, choosing every word we read, it’s clear that he wants us to figure out that Amelia has something more to do with Narcissa’s death.
One of these twists is revealing of important information about a main character
It’s just as important if Dumbledore didn’t do it as it is if he did; it’s another piece of evidence that he’s not a huge evil hypocrite. Which many HPMoR readers seem to need.
future motivation for interesting developments(Harry being forced to choose between Draco and Dumbledore over the promise, or Draco having to forgive his mother’s murderer)
I think it’ll be pretty interesting when Harry finds out that Amelia did it; Amelia was going for painful revenge, while Harry is already hemming and hawing over whether Dumbledore deserves to be an enemy if he did do it. Harry is much more likely to declare Amelia his enemy, and Amelia is much more likely to declare Harry her enemy.
a subversion of our expectations
Sounds to me like Amelia would be the biggest subversion of your expectations! Given the several conversations I’ve had on this topic, I’m pretty sure that Amelia’s guilt will be a subversion of most people’s expectations. In fact, I and possibly pedanterrific may be the only ones in the entire readership whose expectations aren’t subverted.
and is reasonably predictable from evidence dropped in advance.
I really don’t understand why everyone thinks the three clues I identified are worth so much less than the clue-and-a-half we have about Dumbledore.
One of them is irrelevant and a complete cop-out of all the character development built into the original twist. Take a guess which one I assume is more likely to be true.
Amelia killing Narcissa would be the sort of thing M Night Shyamalan would write.
And this is why I didn’t actually mean to start this conversation again; this is the second or possibly third time that I’ve pushed someone to declare Eliezer a bad writer if my hypothesis proves true, who will now actually feel that way when it is proven true, where they probably would have just said “Huh!” before, or maybe even thought it was cool.
I just don’t get it. I don’t understand people’s reluctance to believe this, to step outside the text and realize that these are purposely written clues. Maybe it’s because I’m acting all certain again; maybe perceived overconfidence causes bad reactions in people even with all the supporting evidence, not only without it.
I just don’t get it. I don’t understand people’s reluctance to believe this, to step outside the text and realize that these are purposely written clues.
As someone who takes clues in the form of literary convention, extrapolation of authorial intent, etc. on a regular basis, I just think you’re really reaching.
As a general principle, it seems to me that most of us, most of the time, are really bad at recognizing the extent to which other people, even ones who are reasonably honest, sane and intelligent, can reach different conclusions from our own. This is a large part of why political and religious discussions get so overheated.
What’s not so clear to me is how far this is because so many people are so bad at thinking, and how far it’s because the available evidence often really is that ambiguous. Naively it seems as if, for most questions that are in principle resolvable empirically, the totality of the available evidence should end up pointing very clearly one way or another, so persistent divergences must indicate either failures in thinking methods or something like confirmation bias where different people effectively see very different subsets of the evidence. (Both, alas, very plausible.) But given that even very intelligent people trying hard to be rational, with a reasonable knowledge of cognitive biases can end up holding quite different opinions, perhaps there’s more real ambiguity than one would naively think. Or perhaps it’s just that no human being is really “very intelligent”; the most we ever achieve is “very intelligent relative to the appalling baseline of human stupidity, and still really pretty stupid”.
… But I digress; in the present case it seems fairly clear that there just isn’t more than, say, 10:1 evidence for Dumbledore over Bones or vice versa.
[EDITED some hours after posting, to fix a minor ambiguity I hadn’t noticed.]
Maybe not 10:1, no. But one thing that does seem to have been lacking in all the dissents from my theory is any textual clues pointing to anyone else.
Sometimes the people who object have harebrained ideas, like the person on Reddit who said that Regulus Black was a more likely suspect than Amelia Bones. Sometimes, they’re committed that Dumbledore did it. But so far as I can tell — and please, please, please tell me if I’m missing anything — the only evidence for Dumbledore’s guilt is
Lucius says that Dumbledore told him he did it.
Narcissa’s death represented a strategic victory for the side of the war Dumbledore led.
Narcissa’s death was subsequent to Aberforth’s death.
To me, that is what Eliezer does — information he explicitly gives us and points to and puts blinking lights around — to set the default starting point for the mystery. That is the baseline, boring, standard theory. The Amelia clues I keep bringing up, though, are different. I may do this completely wrong, but it is written:
” … The import of an act lies not in what that act resembles on the surface, Mr. Potter, but in the states of mind which make that act more or less probable.”
You can see Amelia make a “burn” reference, or say that she hates Bellatrix for killing her brother, or speak up in the Wizengamot, and say “That is some really, really circumstantial evidence.”
And in-universe, in the story, that’s absolutely true. You could never justly convict someone in the real world on that evidence alone.
But Eliezer wrote those lines. The same brain that created the Narcissa mystery in the first place also made these explicit decisions: “Amelia Bones thinks of burning for revenge. Amelia Bones’s brother was killed by Narcissa’s sister. Amelia Bones will be the one to speak up at Dumbledore about Narcissa’s death.”
It seems to me that the Eliezer who believes that Amelia killed Narcissa is way more likely to make those three not-binary decisions that way than the Eliezer who believes that Dumbledore or someone else did it.
Pfah. I’m no good at this. Eliezer, if you’re reading this and I’m right, I’d like to cash in those Bayes Points you said I had for you to bookmark this thread and explain this better than I am when you post the chapter with the revelation. And if I’m wrong, then I’m so spectacularly wrong that I will gladly forfeit those Bayes Points anyway, and I don’t mind if you want to make a prominent top-level post about that.
And yet, textual analysis of the same sort is exactly what led me to the Dumbledore theory. I wrote off Draco’s comment as propaganda, and then Dumbledore’s “They learned not to mess with our families” line clued me in that he did it. The line is too on-point for anything else—certainly more so than any of the Bones evidence. His motive is better, his textual clues are clearer, and he explicitly said that he did it. Doesn’t a confession count for anything any more?
I agree with your analytical methods. I just think you’re misapplying them egregiously.
Dumbledore’s “They learned not to mess with our families” line clued me in that he did it. The line is too on-point for anything else
Saying “They learned not to mess with our families” with a stone cold look on his face is what you’d expect Dumbledore to do whether or not he killed Narcissa. The statement is a simple fact. The memory of Aberforth’s death and mere knowledge of Narcissa’s seems to me plenty sufficient to produce that line and that look. Harry has even explicitly thought that Dumbledore has acted consistent with either possibility. I grant that that thought was more about the “Only a fool would say ‘Yea’ or ‘Nay’ ” line, but if Harry thinks the line you mentioned is evidence of guilt, he has failed to think it where we can hear him, even when he was thinking through this entire issue.
His motive is better
Maybe, and yet the deed is still out of character for him, where it’s not nearly as much for Amelia, and Amelia’s motive is plenty good, given that Bellatrix was too powerful to attack directly.
his textual clues are clearer
Such as they are, they’re more explicit and blatant and obvious, yes. That just means it’s a crappy mystery if you’re right. I know I always say “Not everything that is mysterious to the characters is supposed to be mysterious to us”, but that’s more about things where we’re supposed to use our enhanced knowledge of canon or alternate POVs, where it takes deliberate suspension of learning or blatant failures of reading comprehension to keep from admitting the truth. Not like this issue, that’s obviously supposed to be a mystery that will be revealed later.
and he explicitly said that he did it.
Says Lucius. Maybe Dumbledore said he did it, or maybe he used weasel words to lead Lucius to that belief without lying, or maybe he admitted some involvement without saying he cast the spell that killed her. The fact is, Dumbledore had a vested interest in the bad guys’ believing that he did it; therefore, any alleged confessions made by Dumbledore to the bad guys should be treated with suspicion.
EDIT: As a gesture of goodwill, let me post the best evidence I’ve seen that Dumbledore might have killed Narcissa, that I just now thought of and haven’t seen brought up in this context:
Because, you see, I had tried to kill Grindelwald once before, a long time ago, and that… that was… it proved to be… a mistake, Harry...” The old wizard was staring now at his long dark-grey wand where he held it in both hands, as though it were a crystal ball out of Muggle fantasy, a scrying pool within which answers could be found. “And I thought, then… I thought that I should never kill. And then came Voldemort.”
Sounds like Dumbledore has killed before. He said this in the same room where he keeps his Pensieve and memories of Aberforth’s death. I don’t know of any good guesses about who he might have killed other than Narcissa. Consider my probability estimates revised to be closer together. Not past each other, not even terribly closer, but closer.
An interesting thought, and one that I had not considered in this light. And yet, right afterwards:
The old wizard looked back up at Harry, and said, in a hoarse voice, “He is not like Grindelwald, Harry. There is nothing human left in him. Him you must destroy. You must not hesitate, when the time comes. To him alone, of all the creatures in this world, you must show no mercy; and when you are done you must forget it, forget that you ever did such a thing, and go back to living. Save your fury for that, and that alone.”
This seems to make it clear to me that it is not that Dumbledore thought that he would never kill, and then Voldemort’s war changed that, and he killed. It’s that he thought that he should never kill, and then Voldemort himself became the exception, changed the rules so that he should kill Voldemort.
Dumbledore did it, but he did not do it personally.
If Dumbledore manipulated Bones into murdering Narcissa, then we would have a universe where both Dumbledore and Bones would be emotionally affected by her death, where Bones would not want Dumbledore to take the legal blame and where Dumbledore would willingly take the (informal) blame.
I don’t think Amelia Bones is the kind of woman who needs to be manipulated by Dumbledore to get revenge. My similar hypothesis is that Amelia needed Dumbledore’s help to infiltrate Malfoy Manor and pull it off. Aberforth’s death provided the impetus for Dumbledore to help, but he didn’t cast the spell.
The Agreement Theorem is a consider-a-spherical-cow sort of result; its preconditions are absurdly strong. (In particular, the fact that the agents concerned are required not only to be perfect Bayesian reasoners but to have common knowledge that they are so.)
But even without Aumann one might hope for better agreement than we actually see...
I just don’t get it. I don’t understand people’s reluctance to believe this, to step outside the text and realize that these are purposely written clues. Maybe it’s because I’m acting all certain again; maybe perceived overconfidence causes bad reactions in people even with all the supporting evidence, not only without it.
In fact, I and possibly pedanterrific may be the only ones in the entire readership whose expectations aren’t subverted.
Observation bias. Just because the two people mentioned speak up about it (presumably) so much more than others doesn’t mean that they are the only ones who hold this belief.
I share this belief with you, for instance. I find those hints to be convincing, narratively speaking.
Dumbledore’s motive is almost certainly stronger than Amelia’s.
Which is why I think it a significant possibility that Dumbledore helped in some way.
Any of those defenses might be sufficient for a single clue, but you have to take the clues together. Three successive clues (plus her character) pointing to Amelia, and only some words spoken to Lucius that we never saw pointing to Albus (and everything else we know of his character pointing away from him, though I know some would argue that), increase the probability of Amelia’s guilt quite a bit more than linearly.
I prefer the theory that qhzoyrqber hfrq svraqsler gb qrfgebl gur qvnel ubepehk jura ur gubhtug gur ubhfr jnf rzcgl, naq gura pynvzrq perqvg sbe anepvffn’f qrngu fb gung ure fnpevsvpr jbhyq abg or zrnavatyrff
Re the rot13 bit, I called it that Qhzoyrqber xvyyrq ure based on text evidence before that was revealed, so the idea that it’s Obarf has always seemed wrong to me. They can’t both have done it, you know?
Arf, didn’t mean to start this again, but here’s my usual litany:
Gur bayl rivqrapr jr unir gung Qhzoyrqber xvyyrq Anepvffn vf gung Yhpvhf fnlf Qhzoyrqber gbyq uvz fb. Jr qba’g xabj gur rknpg jbeqf Qhzoyrqber hfrq, naq oheavat fbzrbar nyvir ernyyl qbrfa’g frrz yvxr Qhzoyrqber’f fglyr (nygubhtu V jvyy fnl gung Puncgre 89 vf gur svefg gvzr V’ir gubhtug gur Qhzoyrqber-vf-rivy pebjq zvtug npghnyyl unir fbzrguvat fhofgnagvir gb jbex jvgu). Zrnajuvyr:
Nzryvn’f qrsnhyg gubhtug jura eriratr pbzrf gb zvaq vf “Fbzrbar jbhyq ohea sbe guvf.”
Anepvffn’f fvfgre xvyyrq Nzryvn’f oebgure.
Nzryvn vf gur bar jub fcrnxf hc va gur Jvmratnzbg, gryyvat Qhzoyrqber “Qba’g rira guvax nobhg vg” jura Qhzoyrqber pbafvqref pbasrffvat gb Anepvffn’f zheqre.
Jura V bayl xarj nobhg #1, V jebgr vg bss nf n cbffvoyr pbvapvqrapr. Ohg gura crqnagreevsvp cbvagrq bhg #2 gb zr, naq V fgebatyl hctenqrq gur ulcbgurfvf’f cebonovyvgl. Gura yngre #3 unccrarq, naq V orpnzr nf pregnva nf V nz abj.
And if that’s not as close as you can actually come to a Bayesian updating process when reading a fiction book, where the only experiment you can perform is “Wait for more chapters and then read them”, I would love to learn what’s legitimately closer.
1) Gryyvat fbzrbar gung lbh qvq fbzrguvat frrzf yvxr sne fgebatre rivqrapr gb zr guna hfvat n fvzvyne jbeq bapr.
2) Erzrzore, gur oheavat unccrarq evtug nsgre Noresbegu jnf xvyyrq, fb Qhzoyrqber’f zbgvir vf nyzbfg pregnvayl fgebatre guna Nzryvn’f.
3) Nyy guvf erdhverf vf na nyyl pybfr rabhtu gb xabj jung lbh’er guvaxvat naq gb trg lbh gb onpx qbja. V qba’g qbhog gung Nzryvn xabjf nobhg vg, V whfg qba’g guvax fur jnf gur bar jub crefbanyyl qvq vg. Tvira gung Obarf naq ZpTbantnyy ner(V guvax) gur bayl BBGC zrzoref va gur ebbz ng gur gvzr, vg’f irel jrnx rivqrapr—gur cebonovyvgl gung fur’f fcrnxvat hc nf na nyyl vf nyzbfg nf uvtu nf gur cebonovyvgl gung fur’f fcrnxvat hc nf gur thvygl cnegl.
Lbhe gurbel vf abg penml, ohg vg’f yrff cebonoyr guna gur Qhzoyrqber gurbel fb sne nf V pna gryy.
Amelia Bones isn’t a member of the Order of the Phoenix.
One wonders why she would even know about it at all, if she had nothing to do with it.
Well, I think Lucius probably made sure a long time ago that everyone knew what Dumbledore (supposedly) said to him. I didn’t get the feeling from that scene in the Wizengamot that Dumbledore-killing-Narcissa was any kind of a secret idea that people were just then finding out about.
This does rather change my view of some of the peripheral details, though. Previously, one possibility I pictured was Dumbledore restraining Amelia from her vengeance until Aberforth died, then relenting. I knew Amelia Bones wasn’t in the OotP, and I knew she felt distaste at Dumbledore’s softness, but somehow I never completely drew the conclusion that she wouldn’t care one whit about what Dumbledore said or thought, and therefore probably wouldn’t have cared if he had tried to restrain her.
Perhaps more likely, then, is the other way I pictured it: that Amelia couldn’t get to Narcissa by herself, and after Aberforth’s death, Dumbledore actively approached Amelia and said “Okay, I’m ready to help. I’ll be the ward-breaker, you do the deed.”
Whoops, looks like you’re right, the accusation was public knowledge:
I think you miss that this is a work of fiction that has an author. Think about why the author was motivated to make certain choices instead of thinking why the characters were motivated.
That is actually the other reason that I believe as I do. It seems like a much more interesting storytelling decision for my theory to be correct than for the competitor theory to be.
How is it more interesting storytelling for the guy everyone thinks did it to have done it, as opposed to “Here’s a puzzle and the clues to figure it out”?
Because it was a puzzle for the first what, 80 chapters? We’re getting close to the end of the story as of about two arcs ago, it’s time for puzzles to get solved. it’s not an interesting enough puzzle to justify a double twist, IMO.
You think it’s not an interesting puzzle because you think it’s not a puzzle at all. :) And wouldn’t it only be a double-twist if Dumbledore did do it? If Amelia Bones did it it would just be a single twist.
Baseline assumption: Team Death Eater is slandering Dumbledore when they claim he burned Narcissa Malfoy alive.
Twist: Nope, Dumbledore actually did it.
Double Twist: Or it was some random lady who used the word “burn” once. You know, whatever.
One of these twists is revealing of important information about a main character, future motivation for interesting developments(Harry being forced to choose between Draco and Dumbledore over the promise, or Draco having to forgive his mother’s murderer), a subversion of our expectations, and is reasonably predictable from evidence dropped in advance. One of them is irrelevant and a complete cop-out of all the character development built into the original twist. Take a guess which one I assume is more likely to be true.
Amelia killing Narcissa would be the sort of thing M Night Shyamalan would write.
If that were indeed an accurate summary of the situation, I would agree with you. I did agree with you, when that was the only potential clue I knew of. All three major clues would be circumstantial in real life, but when you step out a level and see that Eliezer writes this story, choosing every word we read, it’s clear that he wants us to figure out that Amelia has something more to do with Narcissa’s death.
It’s just as important if Dumbledore didn’t do it as it is if he did; it’s another piece of evidence that he’s not a huge evil hypocrite. Which many HPMoR readers seem to need.
I think it’ll be pretty interesting when Harry finds out that Amelia did it; Amelia was going for painful revenge, while Harry is already hemming and hawing over whether Dumbledore deserves to be an enemy if he did do it. Harry is much more likely to declare Amelia his enemy, and Amelia is much more likely to declare Harry her enemy.
Sounds to me like Amelia would be the biggest subversion of your expectations! Given the several conversations I’ve had on this topic, I’m pretty sure that Amelia’s guilt will be a subversion of most people’s expectations. In fact, I and possibly pedanterrific may be the only ones in the entire readership whose expectations aren’t subverted.
I really don’t understand why everyone thinks the three clues I identified are worth so much less than the clue-and-a-half we have about Dumbledore.
And this is why I didn’t actually mean to start this conversation again; this is the second or possibly third time that I’ve pushed someone to declare Eliezer a bad writer if my hypothesis proves true, who will now actually feel that way when it is proven true, where they probably would have just said “Huh!” before, or maybe even thought it was cool.
I just don’t get it. I don’t understand people’s reluctance to believe this, to step outside the text and realize that these are purposely written clues. Maybe it’s because I’m acting all certain again; maybe perceived overconfidence causes bad reactions in people even with all the supporting evidence, not only without it.
As someone who takes clues in the form of literary convention, extrapolation of authorial intent, etc. on a regular basis, I just think you’re really reaching.
As a general principle, it seems to me that most of us, most of the time, are really bad at recognizing the extent to which other people, even ones who are reasonably honest, sane and intelligent, can reach different conclusions from our own. This is a large part of why political and religious discussions get so overheated.
What’s not so clear to me is how far this is because so many people are so bad at thinking, and how far it’s because the available evidence often really is that ambiguous. Naively it seems as if, for most questions that are in principle resolvable empirically, the totality of the available evidence should end up pointing very clearly one way or another, so persistent divergences must indicate either failures in thinking methods or something like confirmation bias where different people effectively see very different subsets of the evidence. (Both, alas, very plausible.) But given that even very intelligent people trying hard to be rational, with a reasonable knowledge of cognitive biases can end up holding quite different opinions, perhaps there’s more real ambiguity than one would naively think. Or perhaps it’s just that no human being is really “very intelligent”; the most we ever achieve is “very intelligent relative to the appalling baseline of human stupidity, and still really pretty stupid”.
… But I digress; in the present case it seems fairly clear that there just isn’t more than, say, 10:1 evidence for Dumbledore over Bones or vice versa.
[EDITED some hours after posting, to fix a minor ambiguity I hadn’t noticed.]
Maybe not 10:1, no. But one thing that does seem to have been lacking in all the dissents from my theory is any textual clues pointing to anyone else.
Sometimes the people who object have harebrained ideas, like the person on Reddit who said that Regulus Black was a more likely suspect than Amelia Bones. Sometimes, they’re committed that Dumbledore did it. But so far as I can tell — and please, please, please tell me if I’m missing anything — the only evidence for Dumbledore’s guilt is
Lucius says that Dumbledore told him he did it.
Narcissa’s death represented a strategic victory for the side of the war Dumbledore led.
Narcissa’s death was subsequent to Aberforth’s death.
To me, that is what Eliezer does — information he explicitly gives us and points to and puts blinking lights around — to set the default starting point for the mystery. That is the baseline, boring, standard theory. The Amelia clues I keep bringing up, though, are different. I may do this completely wrong, but it is written:
You can see Amelia make a “burn” reference, or say that she hates Bellatrix for killing her brother, or speak up in the Wizengamot, and say “That is some really, really circumstantial evidence.”
And in-universe, in the story, that’s absolutely true. You could never justly convict someone in the real world on that evidence alone.
But Eliezer wrote those lines. The same brain that created the Narcissa mystery in the first place also made these explicit decisions: “Amelia Bones thinks of burning for revenge. Amelia Bones’s brother was killed by Narcissa’s sister. Amelia Bones will be the one to speak up at Dumbledore about Narcissa’s death.”
It seems to me that the Eliezer who believes that Amelia killed Narcissa is way more likely to make those three not-binary decisions that way than the Eliezer who believes that Dumbledore or someone else did it.
Pfah. I’m no good at this. Eliezer, if you’re reading this and I’m right, I’d like to cash in those Bayes Points you said I had for you to bookmark this thread and explain this better than I am when you post the chapter with the revelation. And if I’m wrong, then I’m so spectacularly wrong that I will gladly forfeit those Bayes Points anyway, and I don’t mind if you want to make a prominent top-level post about that.
And yet, textual analysis of the same sort is exactly what led me to the Dumbledore theory. I wrote off Draco’s comment as propaganda, and then Dumbledore’s “They learned not to mess with our families” line clued me in that he did it. The line is too on-point for anything else—certainly more so than any of the Bones evidence. His motive is better, his textual clues are clearer, and he explicitly said that he did it. Doesn’t a confession count for anything any more?
I agree with your analytical methods. I just think you’re misapplying them egregiously.
Saying “They learned not to mess with our families” with a stone cold look on his face is what you’d expect Dumbledore to do whether or not he killed Narcissa. The statement is a simple fact. The memory of Aberforth’s death and mere knowledge of Narcissa’s seems to me plenty sufficient to produce that line and that look. Harry has even explicitly thought that Dumbledore has acted consistent with either possibility. I grant that that thought was more about the “Only a fool would say ‘Yea’ or ‘Nay’ ” line, but if Harry thinks the line you mentioned is evidence of guilt, he has failed to think it where we can hear him, even when he was thinking through this entire issue.
Maybe, and yet the deed is still out of character for him, where it’s not nearly as much for Amelia, and Amelia’s motive is plenty good, given that Bellatrix was too powerful to attack directly.
Such as they are, they’re more explicit and blatant and obvious, yes. That just means it’s a crappy mystery if you’re right. I know I always say “Not everything that is mysterious to the characters is supposed to be mysterious to us”, but that’s more about things where we’re supposed to use our enhanced knowledge of canon or alternate POVs, where it takes deliberate suspension of learning or blatant failures of reading comprehension to keep from admitting the truth. Not like this issue, that’s obviously supposed to be a mystery that will be revealed later.
Says Lucius. Maybe Dumbledore said he did it, or maybe he used weasel words to lead Lucius to that belief without lying, or maybe he admitted some involvement without saying he cast the spell that killed her. The fact is, Dumbledore had a vested interest in the bad guys’ believing that he did it; therefore, any alleged confessions made by Dumbledore to the bad guys should be treated with suspicion.
EDIT: As a gesture of goodwill, let me post the best evidence I’ve seen that Dumbledore might have killed Narcissa, that I just now thought of and haven’t seen brought up in this context:
Sounds like Dumbledore has killed before. He said this in the same room where he keeps his Pensieve and memories of Aberforth’s death. I don’t know of any good guesses about who he might have killed other than Narcissa. Consider my probability estimates revised to be closer together. Not past each other, not even terribly closer, but closer.
An interesting thought, and one that I had not considered in this light. And yet, right afterwards:
This seems to make it clear to me that it is not that Dumbledore thought that he would never kill, and then Voldemort’s war changed that, and he killed. It’s that he thought that he should never kill, and then Voldemort himself became the exception, changed the rules so that he should kill Voldemort.
At least, it is an alternate possibility.
There is, of course, the Third Option.
Dumbledore did it, but he did not do it personally.
If Dumbledore manipulated Bones into murdering Narcissa, then we would have a universe where both Dumbledore and Bones would be emotionally affected by her death, where Bones would not want Dumbledore to take the legal blame and where Dumbledore would willingly take the (informal) blame.
I don’t think Amelia Bones is the kind of woman who needs to be manipulated by Dumbledore to get revenge. My similar hypothesis is that Amelia needed Dumbledore’s help to infiltrate Malfoy Manor and pull it off. Aberforth’s death provided the impetus for Dumbledore to help, but he didn’t cast the spell.
Aumann’s Agreement Theorem. None of us are rational or observant enough to qualify, unfortunately.
The Agreement Theorem is a consider-a-spherical-cow sort of result; its preconditions are absurdly strong. (In particular, the fact that the agents concerned are required not only to be perfect Bayesian reasoners but to have common knowledge that they are so.)
But even without Aumann one might hope for better agreement than we actually see...
Eliezer’s overconfidence script is dangerous.
Observation bias. Just because the two people mentioned speak up about it (presumably) so much more than others doesn’t mean that they are the only ones who hold this belief.
I share this belief with you, for instance. I find those hints to be convincing, narratively speaking.
Which is why I think it a significant possibility that Dumbledore helped in some way.
Any of those defenses might be sufficient for a single clue, but you have to take the clues together. Three successive clues (plus her character) pointing to Amelia, and only some words spoken to Lucius that we never saw pointing to Albus (and everything else we know of his character pointing away from him, though I know some would argue that), increase the probability of Amelia’s guilt quite a bit more than linearly.
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