For the reasons previously given I would grant Lucius idiot ball status for executing this reasoning. It is of course realistic as the behaviour of a high status dark arts amateur with known irrationality tendencies and a poorly calibrated vindication heuristic. This is the kind of thing that Harry should expect to happen when he goes about drawing the attention of and provoking people like Lucius. It just isn’t what a sane Lucius would do, nor is it what he would do if acting as an avatar of (metaphoric) Dark Arts strategy of the type Draco has been tutored in.
Just as you remark, Lucius is known to lose his sanity and strategicalness when his family is threatened. Witness how he tried at the Wizengamot not to accept Harry’s offer of blood-debt cancellation, even though this cost him politically.
I don’t, myself, believe that Lucius was behind this troll; but that is because I am outside the story and have very strong reasons to blame Quirrelmort. To someone inside the story, and particularly to anyone outside Dumbledore’s group who doesn’t know Voldemort is alive, Lucius would be the obvious suspect. They would probably fasten onto him as the only realistic suspect that they could think of, the only one with specific motivation to kill Hermione Granger; and they would explain this using the reasoning I gave.
Just as you remark, Lucius is known to lose his sanity and strategicalness when his family is threatened. Witness how he tried at the Wizengamot not to accept Harry’s offer of blood-debt cancellation, even though this cost him politically.
On this much (what to expect from Lucius) we seem to agree.
For the reasons previously given I would grant Lucius idiot ball status for executing this reasoning. It is of course realistic as the behaviour of a high status dark arts amateur with known irrationality tendencies and a poorly calibrated vindication heuristic. This is the kind of thing that Harry should expect to happen when he goes about drawing the attention of and provoking people like Lucius. It just isn’t what a sane Lucius would do, nor is it what he would do if acting as an avatar of (metaphoric) Dark Arts strategy of the type Draco has been tutored in.
Just as you remark, Lucius is known to lose his sanity and strategicalness when his family is threatened. Witness how he tried at the Wizengamot not to accept Harry’s offer of blood-debt cancellation, even though this cost him politically.
I don’t, myself, believe that Lucius was behind this troll; but that is because I am outside the story and have very strong reasons to blame Quirrelmort. To someone inside the story, and particularly to anyone outside Dumbledore’s group who doesn’t know Voldemort is alive, Lucius would be the obvious suspect. They would probably fasten onto him as the only realistic suspect that they could think of, the only one with specific motivation to kill Hermione Granger; and they would explain this using the reasoning I gave.
On this much (what to expect from Lucius) we seem to agree.