Ok, you’re right, there isn’t enough information to get past the prior implausibility of the hypothesis. I think the other characters should assume he placed tracking charms on Harry. Any explanation about tracking the troll or Hermione would result in him arriving earlier, and when questioned, the divination professor can say approximately when Quirrell started to move, which cross-referenced with Harry’s recollections shows that Quirrell’s actions correlate with Harry being in danger, not Hermione.
However, I assume that these tracking spells can be detected, in which case, if another character attempts to detect these spells and finds none on either Harry or Hermione, the Quirrell has done something seemingly impossible. Given this, Quirrell should probably cast such a spell on Harry before this occurs to anyone.
The problem is that Quirrell can’t cast any spells on Harry. And, furthermore, Quirrell really doesn’t want Dumbledore to find this out—Dumbledore already knows of a certain other person with an unexpected inability to cast spells on Harry Potter, and I think the hint would probably be enough for him to put the two together.
Oh, good point, I had forgot about that. In which case… Dumbledore may not be able to guess the telepathic link due to prior implausibility, but he should realize that there is something odd going on, if it crosses his mind to investigate how Quirrell knew where to go.
Of course, this may not occur for a while if at all, as Dumbledore has plenty of other things to worry about, and the obvious suspect from his POV is Lord Malfoy.
I’ve tried to make it work as a Lord Malfoy assassination, but I can’t seem to make the pieces fit together, and I don’t think Dumbledore would be able to either… Of course, it would be an easy frame-job, should Dumbledore or anyone else be interested in that. I’m going to explain why, not to convince you, but to establish why Dumbledore probably won’t accept that so readily.
First, if it were Lord Malfoy, the assassination would doubtless be for honor, which means that it should be recognizably the work of the Malfoy family. That means death via snakebite. Such an obvious killing may affect Harry’s debt, or create a new blood debt in Harry’s favor, but as has already been demonstrated Lucius doesn’t care about that very much. A mountain troll… doesn’t really have very much to do with Lucius Malfoy. It doesn’t fit the pattern.
Second, the Marauder’s Map Confunding doesn’t make very much sense. Lucius could do a lot with an Imperiused professor, but indiscriminate Legilimency doesn’t seem like one of those things. So, he shouldn’t know about the Map, and definitely shouldn’t have erased it from Fred and George’s minds. That’s not necessarily a disqualifier, but it does mean that Lucius would have to be working with either Snape or Quirrell; I’ll talk about Snape later, but if Quirrell was involved we may as well consider it a Quirrell plot, even if he collected payment from Lucius on the side.
Third, it seems unlikely that Snape is involved. Dumbledore is not opposed to him pretending to be on Lucius’s side. Indeed, Lucius Malfoy trying to pull an assassination from under Dumbledore’s nose would act sufficiently in Dumbledore’s political favor that he might be inclined to let it play out, so long as he would be able to save Hermione at the last minute. This probably wouldn’t even cost Snape much—of course an assassination in Dumbledore’s own castle would be a long shot for Lucius. However, Snape didn’t tip Dumbledore off at all. Even if he suddenly hates Dumbledore, this wouldn’t make any sense for him.
Fourth, and finally, Lucius would have to somehow find a way to circumvent the Hogwarts wards. The dementor in the Humanism arc needed a special pass from Dumbledore in order to get through the wards. Since the mountain troll is the third most perfect killing machine, after the dementor, it’s not unreasonable to suspect that it would also require a special pass from the wards. This would be a problem for Lucius Malfoy and his cronies, even with the aid of Severus Snape or another Imperiused professor. For our benefit, this points the finger squarely at Quirrell, and his secret knowledge inherited from Salazar Slytherin who made those wards; it should merely baffle poor Albus, however.
Firstly, I’m pretty sure Quirrell did it, because (a) he did it in canon and (b) we know he’s voldemort and he’s trying to turn Harry dark (c) he tried to persuade Hermione to leave. But Dumbledore knows none of this, with the possible exception of (c).
First, if it were Lord Malfoy, the assassination would doubtless be for honor, which means that it should be recognizably the work of the Malfoy family. That means death via snakebite. Such an obvious killing may affect Harry’s debt, or create a new blood debt in Harry’s favor, but as has already been demonstrated Lucius doesn’t care about that very much. A mountain troll… doesn’t really have very much to do with Lucius Malfoy. It doesn’t fit the pattern.
Lord Malfoy does not hold absolute power, and even if he could avoid punishment for murder, it would cost him political capital, he would lose swing votes and so forth. But he is not stupid, and so might kill in an uncharacteristic way because it is uncharacteristic. Yes he would want some people to recognize his revenge, but some of the wiser wizards would realize it was him anyway, and he could privately confess it to intimidate his enemies while publicly denying it to minimize the fallout.
Second, the Marauder’s Map Confunding doesn’t make very much sense. Lucius could do a lot with an Imperiused professor, but indiscriminate Legilimency doesn’t seem like one of those things.
I think Fred and George are old enough to leave hogwarts and visit the nearby village, in which case they could have been ambushed there. Do we actually know whether Imperitused people can perform memory charms? He could also have got one of his allies to do this, either a teacher or one of the older students, although this would be more risky.
Fourth, and finally, Lucius would have to somehow find a way to circumvent the Hogwarts wards.
I’m not sure how the wards work, nor who has permission to alter them. There is at least one charm that affects only dementors, so its possible that the wards might be able to detect dementors but not trolls, but that’s just conjecture.
Finally, if there is no way this could have been organized by anyone but a Hogwarts professor, then the finger of blame points squarely at Quirrell, and I think Quirrell is smart enough to avoid that (e.g. if magical creatures cannot be sneaked past the wards, why not smuggle in a lion and cast spells on it to stop magic affecting it?).
Therefore, when Dumbledore looks at the evidence there is going to be sufficient doubt over who did it, and also the secrets of Salazar Slytherin will not be implicated. If Quirrell can devise a plan to break Belltrix out of prison, he can murder a girl without getting caught.
Not to say that Harry won’t realize it was him eventually, but only after more evidence, a lot of deduction and only a few chapters from the stories’ end :)
Ok, you’re right, there isn’t enough information to get past the prior implausibility of the hypothesis. I think the other characters should assume he placed tracking charms on Harry. Any explanation about tracking the troll or Hermione would result in him arriving earlier, and when questioned, the divination professor can say approximately when Quirrell started to move, which cross-referenced with Harry’s recollections shows that Quirrell’s actions correlate with Harry being in danger, not Hermione. However, I assume that these tracking spells can be detected, in which case, if another character attempts to detect these spells and finds none on either Harry or Hermione, the Quirrell has done something seemingly impossible. Given this, Quirrell should probably cast such a spell on Harry before this occurs to anyone.
The problem is that Quirrell can’t cast any spells on Harry. And, furthermore, Quirrell really doesn’t want Dumbledore to find this out—Dumbledore already knows of a certain other person with an unexpected inability to cast spells on Harry Potter, and I think the hint would probably be enough for him to put the two together.
Oh, good point, I had forgot about that. In which case… Dumbledore may not be able to guess the telepathic link due to prior implausibility, but he should realize that there is something odd going on, if it crosses his mind to investigate how Quirrell knew where to go.
Of course, this may not occur for a while if at all, as Dumbledore has plenty of other things to worry about, and the obvious suspect from his POV is Lord Malfoy.
I’ve tried to make it work as a Lord Malfoy assassination, but I can’t seem to make the pieces fit together, and I don’t think Dumbledore would be able to either… Of course, it would be an easy frame-job, should Dumbledore or anyone else be interested in that. I’m going to explain why, not to convince you, but to establish why Dumbledore probably won’t accept that so readily.
First, if it were Lord Malfoy, the assassination would doubtless be for honor, which means that it should be recognizably the work of the Malfoy family. That means death via snakebite. Such an obvious killing may affect Harry’s debt, or create a new blood debt in Harry’s favor, but as has already been demonstrated Lucius doesn’t care about that very much. A mountain troll… doesn’t really have very much to do with Lucius Malfoy. It doesn’t fit the pattern.
Second, the Marauder’s Map Confunding doesn’t make very much sense. Lucius could do a lot with an Imperiused professor, but indiscriminate Legilimency doesn’t seem like one of those things. So, he shouldn’t know about the Map, and definitely shouldn’t have erased it from Fred and George’s minds. That’s not necessarily a disqualifier, but it does mean that Lucius would have to be working with either Snape or Quirrell; I’ll talk about Snape later, but if Quirrell was involved we may as well consider it a Quirrell plot, even if he collected payment from Lucius on the side.
Third, it seems unlikely that Snape is involved. Dumbledore is not opposed to him pretending to be on Lucius’s side. Indeed, Lucius Malfoy trying to pull an assassination from under Dumbledore’s nose would act sufficiently in Dumbledore’s political favor that he might be inclined to let it play out, so long as he would be able to save Hermione at the last minute. This probably wouldn’t even cost Snape much—of course an assassination in Dumbledore’s own castle would be a long shot for Lucius. However, Snape didn’t tip Dumbledore off at all. Even if he suddenly hates Dumbledore, this wouldn’t make any sense for him.
Fourth, and finally, Lucius would have to somehow find a way to circumvent the Hogwarts wards. The dementor in the Humanism arc needed a special pass from Dumbledore in order to get through the wards. Since the mountain troll is the third most perfect killing machine, after the dementor, it’s not unreasonable to suspect that it would also require a special pass from the wards. This would be a problem for Lucius Malfoy and his cronies, even with the aid of Severus Snape or another Imperiused professor. For our benefit, this points the finger squarely at Quirrell, and his secret knowledge inherited from Salazar Slytherin who made those wards; it should merely baffle poor Albus, however.
Firstly, I’m pretty sure Quirrell did it, because (a) he did it in canon and (b) we know he’s voldemort and he’s trying to turn Harry dark (c) he tried to persuade Hermione to leave. But Dumbledore knows none of this, with the possible exception of (c).
Lord Malfoy does not hold absolute power, and even if he could avoid punishment for murder, it would cost him political capital, he would lose swing votes and so forth. But he is not stupid, and so might kill in an uncharacteristic way because it is uncharacteristic. Yes he would want some people to recognize his revenge, but some of the wiser wizards would realize it was him anyway, and he could privately confess it to intimidate his enemies while publicly denying it to minimize the fallout.
I think Fred and George are old enough to leave hogwarts and visit the nearby village, in which case they could have been ambushed there. Do we actually know whether Imperitused people can perform memory charms? He could also have got one of his allies to do this, either a teacher or one of the older students, although this would be more risky.
I’m not sure how the wards work, nor who has permission to alter them. There is at least one charm that affects only dementors, so its possible that the wards might be able to detect dementors but not trolls, but that’s just conjecture.
Finally, if there is no way this could have been organized by anyone but a Hogwarts professor, then the finger of blame points squarely at Quirrell, and I think Quirrell is smart enough to avoid that (e.g. if magical creatures cannot be sneaked past the wards, why not smuggle in a lion and cast spells on it to stop magic affecting it?).
Therefore, when Dumbledore looks at the evidence there is going to be sufficient doubt over who did it, and also the secrets of Salazar Slytherin will not be implicated. If Quirrell can devise a plan to break Belltrix out of prison, he can murder a girl without getting caught.
Not to say that Harry won’t realize it was him eventually, but only after more evidence, a lot of deduction and only a few chapters from the stories’ end :)