Beliefs ought to bob around in the stream of evidence as a random walk without trend.
Note the nice property that martingales (random processes with E[X_{t+1}|x_t] = x_t) acting on bounded space (such as probabilities between 0 and 1) almost surely converge (that is lim t → infinity X_t exists).
Note the nice property that martingales (random processes with E[X_{t+1}|x_t] = x_t) acting on bounded space (such as probabilities between 0 and 1) almost surely converge (that is lim t → infinity X_t exists).