In hyper-Solomonoff induction, indeed the direct hypercomputation hypothesis is probably more likely than the arbitration-oracle-emulating-hypercomputation hypothesis. But only by a constant factor. So this isn’t really falsification so much as a shift in Bayesian evidence.
I do think it’s theoretically cleaner to distinguish this Bayesian reweighting from Popperian logical falsification, and from Neyman-Pearson null hypothesis significance testing (frequentist falsification), both of which in principle require producing an unbounded number of bits of evidence, although in practice rely on unfalsifiable assumptions to avoid radical skepticism e.g. of memory.
In hyper-Solomonoff induction, indeed the direct hypercomputation hypothesis is probably more likely than the arbitration-oracle-emulating-hypercomputation hypothesis. But only by a constant factor. So this isn’t really falsification so much as a shift in Bayesian evidence.
I do think it’s theoretically cleaner to distinguish this Bayesian reweighting from Popperian logical falsification, and from Neyman-Pearson null hypothesis significance testing (frequentist falsification), both of which in principle require producing an unbounded number of bits of evidence, although in practice rely on unfalsifiable assumptions to avoid radical skepticism e.g. of memory.