We should sort reasoning into the inductive and deductive types: inductive provides a working model, deductive provides a more consistent (less contradictory) model. Deductive conclusions are guaranteed to be true, as long as their premises are true. Inductive conclusions are held with a degree of confidence, and depend on how well the variables in the study were isolated. For the empire example in the original post, there are many variables other than computing power that affect the rise and fall of empires. Computing power is only one of many technologies, and besides technology, there is finance, military, culture, food, health, education, natural disaster, religion, etc. Adding to the uncertainty is the small sample size, relative to the number of variables.
However, we can more easily isolate the effect of computing power on census taking, as mentioned, just as we can draw a more confident conclusion between the printing press and literacy rates. Everything has its scale. Relate big to big, medium to medium, small to small. Build up a structure of microscopic relations to find macroscopic patterns.
We should sort reasoning into the inductive and deductive types: inductive provides a working model, deductive provides a more consistent (less contradictory) model. Deductive conclusions are guaranteed to be true, as long as their premises are true. Inductive conclusions are held with a degree of confidence, and depend on how well the variables in the study were isolated. For the empire example in the original post, there are many variables other than computing power that affect the rise and fall of empires. Computing power is only one of many technologies, and besides technology, there is finance, military, culture, food, health, education, natural disaster, religion, etc. Adding to the uncertainty is the small sample size, relative to the number of variables.
However, we can more easily isolate the effect of computing power on census taking, as mentioned, just as we can draw a more confident conclusion between the printing press and literacy rates. Everything has its scale. Relate big to big, medium to medium, small to small. Build up a structure of microscopic relations to find macroscopic patterns.