Douglas W. Hubbard has a book titled How to Measure Anything where he states that half a day of exercising confidence interval calibration makes most people nearly perfectly calibrated. As you noted and as is said here, that method fits nicely with Fermi estimates.
This combination seems to have a great ratio between training time and usefulness.
Douglas W. Hubbard has a book titled How to Measure Anything where he states that half a day of exercising confidence interval calibration makes most people nearly perfectly calibrated. As you noted and as is said here, that method fits nicely with Fermi estimates.
This combination seems to have a great ratio between training time and usefulness.