To a very good first approximation, the distribution of falling piano deaths is Poisson. So if the expected number of deaths is in the range [0.39, 39], then the probability that no one has died of a falling piano is in the range [1e-17, 0.677] which would lead us to believe that with a probability of at least 1⁄3 such a death has occurred. (If 3.9 were the true average, then there’s only a 2% chance of no such deaths.)
I disagree that the lower bound is 0; the right range is [-39,39]. Because after all, a falling piano can kill negative people: if a piano had fallen on Adolf Hitler in 1929, then it would have killed −5,999,999 people!
To a very good first approximation, the distribution of falling piano deaths is Poisson. So if the expected number of deaths is in the range [0.39, 39], then the probability that no one has died of a falling piano is in the range [1e-17, 0.677] which would lead us to believe that with a probability of at least 1⁄3 such a death has occurred. (If 3.9 were the true average, then there’s only a 2% chance of no such deaths.)
I disagree that the lower bound is 0; the right range is [-39,39]. Because after all, a falling piano can kill negative people: if a piano had fallen on Adolf Hitler in 1929, then it would have killed −5,999,999 people!
Sorry. The probability is in the range [1e-17, 1e17].
That is a large probability.
It’s for when you need to be a thousand million billion percent sure of something.