You could look into Bayesian Belief networks. I think your problem will be that your calculations for belief propagation will only be as good as your ability to properly model your beliefs and their dependencies. Also, the shifting interpretation even of your own statements will lead you chasing your own tail in updates.
I think this kind of tool and the use of it would be more useful in limited contexts. I was entering into a little business arrangement and getting my undies in bunch over trust issues. I stepped back a second and considered not what the other guy could do, but what he was likely to do, based on reasonable priors. That unwound my undies and I got on with the deal.
Having a belief network wizard that walked you through analyzing particular problems and applying reasonable priors would likely be very helpful in a lot of situations. Instead of the belief network alone, make it a bayesian decision theory tool, so that you can make better decisions, instead of just better estimates of what will happen.
You could look into Bayesian Belief networks. I think your problem will be that your calculations for belief propagation will only be as good as your ability to properly model your beliefs and their dependencies. Also, the shifting interpretation even of your own statements will lead you chasing your own tail in updates.
I think this kind of tool and the use of it would be more useful in limited contexts. I was entering into a little business arrangement and getting my undies in bunch over trust issues. I stepped back a second and considered not what the other guy could do, but what he was likely to do, based on reasonable priors. That unwound my undies and I got on with the deal.
Having a belief network wizard that walked you through analyzing particular problems and applying reasonable priors would likely be very helpful in a lot of situations. Instead of the belief network alone, make it a bayesian decision theory tool, so that you can make better decisions, instead of just better estimates of what will happen.